Flywire Corporation (FLYW) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Flywire Corporation (FLYW) currently trades at $14.16 with an enterprise value of $4.95B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Flywire Corporation at 59/100 (Grade: B · Mixed Fundamental Profile). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 2.0% vs. historical growth of 39.0% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Flywire Corporation (FLYW) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Flywire Corporation (FLYW) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test FLYW's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $14.16).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $50.19 +254% | $53.29 +276% | $56.91 +302% | $61.18 +332% | $66.31 +368% |
| 9.3% | $45.20 +219% | $47.64 +236% | $50.44 +256% | $53.69 +279% | $57.51 +306% |
| 10.0% | $41.09 +190% | $43.06 +204% | $45.28 +220% | $47.82 +238% | $50.76 +258% |
| 10.8% | $37.67 +166% | $39.28 +177% | $41.07 +190% | $43.11 +204% | $45.42 +221% |
| 11.5% | $34.77 +146% | $36.10 +155% | $37.58 +165% | $39.23 +177% | $41.09 +190% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (59/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Net cash positive: $493.5M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (63.9%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into FLYW?
The current share price only requires 2.0% 5-year CAGR (15.5% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 39.0%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (13.2% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.6%/yr). Accounting for both requires 15.5% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $14.16/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Flywire Corporation (FLYW) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $492.1M | $492.1M | $684.1M | $951.0M | $1.32B | $1.84B | $2.55B |
| Gross Profit | $314.7M | $314.7M | $437.4M | $608.1M | $845.3M | $1.18B | $1.63B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-7.3M | $-7.2M | $-10.1M | $-14.0M | $-19.4M | $-27.0M | $-37.6M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $64.9M | $64.9M | $90.2M | $125.4M | $174.4M | $242.4M | $337.0M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $90.5M | $90.6M | $125.9M | $175.0M | $243.2M | $338.1M | $470.0M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $25.6M | $25.6M | $35.6M | $49.5M | $68.9M | $95.7M | $133.1M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -17.2 + 0.53 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 27%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flywire Corporation | FLYW | $1.70B | $492.1M | 63.9% | 18.4% | 57.4% | 13.2% | 2.5× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 2.5× | $1.21B | $1.70B | $14.16 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 2.0× | $967.4M | $1.46B | $12.15 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.6× | $786.0M | $1.28B | $10.64 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $2.46B | $2.95B | $24.57 | +103.5% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Flywire Corporation (FLYW) Valuation
What is Flywire Corporation (FLYW)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Flywire Corporation (FLYW) has a Base Case implied value of $45.30 per share (with a Bear Case of $17.04 and a Bull Case of $93.44), compared to its current price of $14.16. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Flywire Corporation (FLYW)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Flywire Corporation achieves a Rule of 40 score of 57.4%, combining a 39.0% revenue growth run-rate with a 18.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $492.1M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into FLYW stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $14.16 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.21B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 2.0%, compared to Flywire Corporation's historical CAGR of 39.0%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does Flywire Corporation compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Flywire Corporation (FLYW) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 59/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Flywire Corporation (FLYW)'s valuation?
Flywire Corporation recorded $64.9M in TTM stock-based compensation (13.2% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Flywire Corporation's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.5%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.