Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT) currently trades at $14.31 with an enterprise value of $604.0M. Our proprietary institutional model rates Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. at 73/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 20.7% vs. historical growth of 16.4% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test GILT's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $14.31).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $16.19 +13% | $17.09 +19% | $18.15 +27% | $19.39 +35% | $20.88 +46% |
| 9.3% | $14.73 +3% | $15.44 +8% | $16.25 +14% | $17.20 +20% | $18.31 +28% |
| 10.0% | $13.52 -6% | $14.09 -2% | $14.74 +3% | $15.48 +8% | $16.33 +14% |
| 10.8% | $12.51 -13% | $12.98 -9% | $13.50 -6% | $14.09 -2% | $14.77 +3% |
| 11.5% | $11.66 -19% | $12.04 -16% | $12.47 -13% | $12.96 -9% | $13.50 -6% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (73/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Solid cash generation with minor working capital absorption
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 2.2% of revenue
- Net cash positive: $110.8M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (37.1%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into GILT?
Market implies 20.7% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (24.9% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (2.2% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.3%/yr). Accounting for both requires 24.9% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $14.31/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $305.4M | $305.4M | $355.7M | $414.1M | $482.2M | $561.5M | $653.8M |
| Gross Profit | $113.3M | $113.3M | $132.0M | $153.6M | $178.9M | $208.3M | $242.6M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $27.7M | $27.7M | $32.3M | $37.6M | $43.7M | $50.9M | $59.3M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $6.7M | $6.7M | $7.8M | $9.1M | $10.6M | $12.4M | $14.4M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $25.1M | $25.0M | $29.2M | $34.0M | $39.5M | $46.0M | $53.6M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $18.3M | $18.3M | $21.3M | $24.8M | $28.9M | $33.7M | $39.2M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -12.1 + 0.48 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 72%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. | GILT | $821.6M | $305.4M | 37.1% | 8.2% | 24.6% | 2.2% | 2.3× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 2.3× | $710.8M | $821.6M | $14.31 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 1.9× | $568.6M | $679.4M | $11.83 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.5× | $462.0M | $572.8M | $9.98 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.53B | $1.64B | $28.53 | +114.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT) Valuation
What is Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT) has a Base Case implied value of $12.45 per share (with a Bear Case of $6.79 and a Bull Case of $19.94), compared to its current price of $14.31. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 24.6%, combining a 16.4% revenue growth run-rate with a 8.2% TTM free cash flow margin on $305.4M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into GILT stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $14.31 per share (Enterprise Value of $710.8M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 20.7%, compared to Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.'s historical CAGR of 16.4%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 73/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (GILT)'s valuation?
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. recorded $6.7M in TTM stock-based compensation (2.2% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 2.2%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.