Grindr Inc. (GRND) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Grindr Inc. (GRND) currently trades at $13.27 with an enterprise value of $4.45B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Grindr Inc. at 70/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 21.3% vs. historical growth of 34.8% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Grindr Inc. (GRND) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Grindr Inc. (GRND) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test GRND's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $13.27).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $25.26 +90% | $27.02 +104% | $29.08 +119% | $31.52 +138% | $34.44 +160% |
| 9.3% | $22.41 +69% | $23.80 +79% | $25.39 +91% | $27.25 +105% | $29.42 +122% |
| 10.0% | $20.06 +51% | $21.18 +60% | $22.45 +69% | $23.90 +80% | $25.57 +93% |
| 10.8% | $18.11 +36% | $19.02 +43% | $20.05 +51% | $21.21 +60% | $22.52 +70% |
| 11.5% | $16.45 +24% | $17.21 +30% | $18.05 +36% | $19.00 +43% | $20.06 +51% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (70/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Strong cash conversion; 100%+ of operating profit turns into free cash
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High cash conversion: 100%+ of operating income converted to free cash flow
- Healthy unit economics: 74.6% gross margin
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into GRND?
The current share price only requires 21.3% 5-year CAGR (28.9% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 34.8%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (10.8% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.3%/yr). Accounting for both requires 28.9% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $13.27/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Grindr Inc. (GRND) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $344.6M | $344.6M | $464.5M | $626.0M | $843.6M | $1.14B | $1.53B |
| Gross Profit | $257.1M | $257.1M | $346.4M | $466.9M | $629.2M | $848.0M | $1.14B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $92.6M | $92.6M | $124.8M | $168.2M | $226.7M | $305.5M | $411.7M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $37.3M | $37.3M | $50.2M | $67.7M | $91.2M | $122.9M | $165.6M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $94.0M | $94.0M | $126.7M | $170.8M | $230.1M | $310.2M | $418.0M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $56.7M | $56.8M | $76.5M | $103.1M | $138.9M | $187.3M | $252.4M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -12.8 + 0.45 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 33%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grindr Inc. | GRND | $2.49B | $344.6M | 74.6% | 27.3% | 62.1% | 10.8% | 7.9× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 7.9× | $2.73B | $2.49B | $13.27 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 6.3× | $2.18B | $1.95B | $10.37 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 5.1× | $1.77B | $1.54B | $8.19 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.72B | $1.49B | $7.92 | -36.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Grindr Inc. (GRND) Valuation
What is Grindr Inc. (GRND)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Grindr Inc. (GRND) has a Base Case implied value of $22.41 per share (with a Bear Case of $6.69 and a Bull Case of $48.15), compared to its current price of $13.27. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Grindr Inc. (GRND)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Grindr Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 62.1%, combining a 34.8% revenue growth run-rate with a 27.3% TTM free cash flow margin on $344.6M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into GRND stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $13.27 per share (Enterprise Value of $2.73B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 21.3%, compared to Grindr Inc.'s historical CAGR of 34.8%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does Grindr Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Grindr Inc. (GRND) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 70/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Grindr Inc. (GRND)'s valuation?
Grindr Inc. recorded $37.3M in TTM stock-based compensation (10.8% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Grindr Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 2.3%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.