Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF) currently trades at $13.01 with an enterprise value of $702.3M. Our proprietary institutional model rates Jamf Holding Corp. at 50/100 (Grade: B · Mixed Fundamental Profile). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 11.7% vs. historical growth of 23.6% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test JAMF's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $13.01).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $15.55 +20% | $16.63 +28% | $17.89 +37% | $19.37 +49% | $21.15 +63% |
| 9.3% | $13.81 +6% | $14.65 +13% | $15.63 +20% | $16.76 +29% | $18.08 +39% |
| 10.0% | $12.37 -5% | $13.05 +0% | $13.83 +6% | $14.71 +13% | $15.73 +21% |
| 10.8% | $11.17 -14% | $11.73 -10% | $12.35 -5% | $13.06 +0% | $13.86 +7% |
| 11.5% | $10.15 -22% | $10.62 -18% | $11.13 -14% | $11.71 -10% | $12.35 -5% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (50/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Substantial SBC dilution drag: SBC is 15.5% of revenue ($97.4M)
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into JAMF?
The current share price only requires 11.7% 5-year CAGR (33.4% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 23.6%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (15.5% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.9%/yr). Accounting for both requires 33.4% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $13.01/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $627.4M | $627.4M | $775.2M | $957.9M | $1.18B | $1.46B | $1.81B |
| Gross Profit | $486.1M | $486.0M | $600.6M | $742.1M | $916.9M | $1.13B | $1.40B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-69.1M | $-69.1M | $-85.4M | $-105.5M | $-130.3M | $-161.0M | $-198.9M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $97.4M | $97.4M | $120.3M | $148.7M | $183.7M | $227.0M | $280.4M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $22.2M | $22.2M | $27.4M | $33.9M | $41.9M | $51.8M | $64.0M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $-75.2M | $-75.2M | $-92.9M | $-114.8M | $-141.8M | $-175.2M | $-216.5M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -13.4 + 0.50 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 72%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamf Holding Corp. | JAMF | $1.73B | $627.4M | 77.5% | 3.5% | 27.1% | 15.5% | 3.0× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.0× | $1.88B | $1.73B | $13.01 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 2.4× | $1.50B | $1.36B | $10.19 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.9× | $1.22B | $1.08B | $8.08 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $3.14B | $2.99B | $22.46 | +67.0% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF) Valuation
What is Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF) has a Base Case implied value of $4.18 per share (with a Bear Case of $1.05 and a Bull Case of $8.72), compared to its current price of $13.01. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Jamf Holding Corp. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 27.1%, combining a 23.6% revenue growth run-rate with a 3.5% TTM free cash flow margin on $627.4M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into JAMF stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $13.01 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.88B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 11.7%, compared to Jamf Holding Corp.'s historical CAGR of 23.6%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does Jamf Holding Corp. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 50/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Jamf Holding Corp. (JAMF)'s valuation?
Jamf Holding Corp. recorded $97.4M in TTM stock-based compensation (15.5% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Jamf Holding Corp.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -4.3%, scoring 10/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.