Jabil Inc. (JBL) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Jabil Inc. (JBL) currently trades at $223.42 with an enterprise value of $14.65B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Jabil Inc. at 63/100 (Grade: B · Mixed Fundamental Profile). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of -17.0% vs. historical growth of 0.4% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Jabil Inc. (JBL) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Jabil Inc. (JBL) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test JBL's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $223.42).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $372.18 +67% | $394.75 +77% | $421.07 +88% | $452.18 +102% | $489.52 +119% |
| 9.3% | $335.08 +50% | $352.86 +58% | $373.27 +67% | $396.94 +78% | $424.73 +90% |
| 10.0% | $304.52 +36% | $318.81 +43% | $335.01 +50% | $353.52 +58% | $374.88 +68% |
| 10.8% | $278.91 +25% | $290.60 +30% | $303.70 +36% | $318.49 +43% | $335.32 +50% |
| 11.5% | $257.14 +15% | $266.83 +19% | $277.60 +24% | $289.63 +30% | $303.17 +36% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (63/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Solid cash generation with minor working capital absorption
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 0.0% of revenue
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (8.9%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into JBL?
The current share price only requires -17.0% 5-year CAGR (-17.0% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 0.4%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (0.0% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.0%/yr). Accounting for both requires -17.0% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $223.42/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Jabil Inc. (JBL) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.80B | $29.80B | $29.93B | $30.06B | $30.20B | $30.33B | $30.46B |
| Gross Profit | $2.65B | $2.65B | $2.66B | $2.67B | $2.68B | $2.69B | $2.71B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $1.18B | $1.18B | $1.19B | $1.19B | $1.20B | $1.20B | $1.21B |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $1.17B | $1.17B | $1.18B | $1.18B | $1.19B | $1.19B | $1.20B |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $1.17B | $1.17B | $1.18B | $1.18B | $1.19B | $1.19B | $1.20B |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -2.9 + 0.29 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 64%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabil Inc. | JBL | $23.87B | $29.80B | 8.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | — | 0.8× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 0.8× | $25.30B | $23.87B | $223.42 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 0.7× | $20.24B | $18.81B | $176.05 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 0.6× | $16.45B | $15.01B | $140.53 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $149.01B | $147.58B | $1,381.32 | +488.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Jabil Inc. (JBL) Valuation
What is Jabil Inc. (JBL)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Jabil Inc. (JBL) has a Base Case implied value of $123.75 per share (with a Bear Case of $74.90 and a Bull Case of $172.71), compared to its current price of $223.42. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Jabil Inc. (JBL)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Jabil Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 4.4%, combining a 0.4% revenue growth run-rate with a 3.9% TTM free cash flow margin on $29.80B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into JBL stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $223.42 per share (Enterprise Value of $25.30B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of -17.0%, compared to Jabil Inc.'s historical CAGR of 0.4%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does Jabil Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Jabil Inc. (JBL) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 63/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Jabil Inc. (JBL)'s valuation?
Jabil Inc. recorded $0 in TTM stock-based compensation (15.0% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Jabil Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 4.9%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.