Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK) currently trades at $10.40 with an enterprise value of $2.14B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock at 77/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 23.5% vs. historical growth of 28.1% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test KDK's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $10.40).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $13.62 +31% | $14.49 +39% | $15.49 +49% | $16.68 +60% | $18.11 +74% |
| 9.3% | $12.22 +18% | $12.90 +24% | $13.69 +32% | $14.59 +40% | $15.66 +51% |
| 10.0% | $11.08 +6% | $11.62 +12% | $12.24 +18% | $12.95 +25% | $13.77 +32% |
| 10.8% | $10.12 -3% | $10.56 +2% | $11.06 +6% | $11.63 +12% | $12.28 +18% |
| 11.5% | $9.30 -11% | $9.67 -7% | $10.09 -3% | $10.55 +1% | $11.07 +6% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (77/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 356% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Healthy unit economics: 71.5% gross margin
- Net cash positive: $80.9M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Substantial SBC dilution drag: SBC is 19.6% of revenue ($45.0M)
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into KDK?
Market implies 23.5% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (40.3% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (19.6% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 40.3% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $10.40/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $229.8M | $229.8M | $294.4M | $377.1M | $483.1M | $618.9M | $792.8M |
| Gross Profit | $164.3M | $164.3M | $210.5M | $269.6M | $345.4M | $442.5M | $566.8M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $16.1M | $16.1M | $20.6M | $26.4M | $33.8M | $43.3M | $55.5M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $45.0M | $45.0M | $57.7M | $73.9M | $94.7M | $121.3M | $155.4M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $57.2M | $57.2M | $73.3M | $93.9M | $120.3M | $154.1M | $197.4M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $12.2M | $12.2M | $15.6M | $20.0M | $25.6M | $32.8M | $42.0M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -29.4 + 0.79 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 69%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock | KDK | $1.88B | $229.8M | 71.5% | 24.9% | 53.0% | 19.6% | 7.8× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 7.8× | $1.80B | $1.88B | $10.40 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 6.3× | $1.44B | $1.52B | $8.41 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 5.1× | $1.17B | $1.25B | $6.92 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.15B | $1.23B | $6.79 | -36.3% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK) Valuation
What is Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK) has a Base Case implied value of $12.24 per share (with a Bear Case of $4.86 and a Bull Case of $23.52), compared to its current price of $10.40. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock achieves a Rule of 40 score of 53.0%, combining a 28.1% revenue growth run-rate with a 24.9% TTM free cash flow margin on $229.8M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into KDK stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $10.40 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.80B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 23.5%, compared to Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock's historical CAGR of 28.1%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 77/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock (KDK)'s valuation?
Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock recorded $45.0M in TTM stock-based compensation (19.6% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.7%, scoring 10/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.