Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI) currently trades at — with an enterprise value of $27,940.06B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz at 68/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test KSPI's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: —).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $166,298.96 N/M | $177,370.18 N/M | $190,286.61 N/M | $205,551.49 N/M | $223,869.33 N/M |
| 9.3% | $148,448.17 N/M | $157,169.86 N/M | $167,183.65 N/M | $178,799.64 N/M | $192,435.81 N/M |
| 10.0% | $133,798.66 N/M | $140,810.73 N/M | $148,757.75 N/M | $157,840.05 N/M | $168,319.63 N/M |
| 10.8% | $121,570.03 N/M | $127,303.28 N/M | $133,731.48 N/M | $140,989.12 N/M | $149,247.82 N/M |
| 11.5% | $111,216.06 N/M | $115,970.54 N/M | $121,253.30 N/M | $127,157.55 N/M | $133,799.84 N/M |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (68/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 0.0% of revenue
- Net cash positive: $398.01B balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (62.3%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2,520.93B | $2,520.93B | $3,541.15B | $4,974.25B | $6,987.33B | $9,815.10B | $13,787.27B |
| Gross Profit | $1,571.46B | $1,571.55B | $2,207.55B | $3,100.95B | $4,355.90B | $6,118.73B | $8,594.98B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $1,271.06B | $1,271.05B | $1,785.45B | $2,508.02B | $3,523.01B | $4,948.77B | $6,951.54B |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $486.17B | $486.29B | $683.09B | $959.53B | $1,347.86B | $1,893.33B | $2,659.56B |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $486.17B | $486.29B | $683.09B | $959.53B | $1,347.86B | $1,893.33B | $2,659.56B |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -30.2 + 0.82 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 79%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz | KSPI | — | $2,520.93B | 62.3% | 19.3% | 59.8% | — | — |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | -0.2× | $-393.24B | $4.77B | $25.00 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | -0.1× | $-314.60B | $83.42B | $437.24 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | -0.1× | $-255.61B | $142.41B | $746.42 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $12,604.64B | $13,002.65B | $68,153.58 | 0.0% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Valuation
What is Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI) has a Base Case implied value of N/A per share (with a Bear Case of N/A and a Bull Case of N/A), compared to its current price of market price. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz achieves a Rule of 40 score of 59.8%, combining a 40.5% revenue growth run-rate with a 19.3% TTM free cash flow margin on $2520.93B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into KSPI stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At market price per share (Enterprise Value of N/A), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 40.5%, compared to Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz's historical CAGR of 40.5%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 68/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz (KSPI)'s valuation?
Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz recorded $0 in TTM stock-based compensation (15.0% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is evaluated directly in our 3-statement model, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.