Research HubSoftware & Cloud ServicesLumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)

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SEC 10-K / 10-Q Equity ResearchSoftware & Cloud ServicesTicker: LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) currently trades at $357.05 with an enterprise value of $19.94B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Lumentum Holdings Inc. at 85/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 28.4% vs. historical growth of 24.3% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).

GDA Quality Score

A85/100

High-Quality Compounder

Share Price / DCF Base

$357.05 / $310.28

Enterprise Value

$23.19B

TTM Revenue

$2.73B (+24.3%)

Gross Margin

77.4%

Rule of 40 Score

46.8%

EV / TTM Revenue

8.5×

Structural Moat: Enterprise Software & Cloud Services Switching Costs & Recurring Workflow Integration

Key Growth Catalyst: AI workflow automation, multi-module expansion across enterprise cohorts, and operating margin leverage at Lumentum Holdings Inc..

Institutional fundamental teardown of Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.

Seed LITE in Interactive 3-Statement Model

Section 1 · Intrinsic Valuation Engine

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Terminal Growth: 2.5% · Diluted Shares: 69.5M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

$138.10

Implied Equity Value:$9.60B

vs Current ($357.05):-61.3%

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$310.28

Implied Equity Value:$21.56B

vs Current ($357.05):-13.1%

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$562.33

Implied Equity Value:$39.08B

vs Current ($357.05):+57.5%

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 46.8%

Stress-test LITE's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

5Y Revenue CAGR24.3%

2%Hist: 24.3%50%

Target FCF Margin22.5%

5%Base: 22.5%45%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

6.5%Base: 10%14.5%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

1.0%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF4.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Implied Price$310.28

Spread vs Market-13.1%

Simulated EV$19.94B

Effective FCF Margin22.5%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $4.49B

Year 1$3.39B

FCF:$762.7M

PV:$693.3M

Year 2$4.21B

FCF:$948.0M

PV:$783.5M

Year 3$5.24B

FCF:$1.18B

PV:$885.3M

Year 4$6.51B

FCF:$1.46B

PV:$1.00B

Year 5$8.09B

FCF:$1.82B

PV:$1.13B

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$19.94B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $4.49B (22.5%)Terminal PV: $15.45B (77.5%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$1.62B

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$0

(=) Implied Equity Value (69.5M shs)$21.56B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $357.05).

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$343.55 -4%	$364.33 +2%	$388.56 +9%	$417.20 +17%	$451.57 +26%
9.3%	$309.88 -13%	$326.24 -9%	$345.03 -3%	$366.83 +3%	$392.41 +10%
10.0%	$282.22 -21%	$295.37 -17%	$310.28 -13%	$327.32 -8%	$346.99 -3%
10.8%	$259.10 -27%	$269.86 -24%	$281.92 -21%	$295.54 -17%	$311.03 -13%
11.5%	$239.51 -33%	$248.43 -30%	$258.34 -28%	$269.42 -25%	$281.88 -21%

Section 2 · Fundamental Underwriting

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (85/100 · Grade A)

High-Quality Compounder

Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.

Cash Conversion25 / 25

Actual: 2045% of EBITTarget: Target: ≥100%

Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%

Dilution Friction10 / 25

Actual: 18.8% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow

Unit Economics25 / 25

Actual: 77% GM / R40: 47%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40

Balance Sheet25 / 25

Actual: +$1.62B Net CashTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Zero-debt fortress balance sheet with abundant net cash liquidity

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 2045% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
Top-quartile software unit economics: 77.4% gross margin and 46.8% Rule of 40 score
Fortress capital structure: Zero debt and $1.62B in pure net cash

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Substantial SBC dilution drag: SBC is 18.8% of revenue ($512.7M)

Section 3 · Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into LITE?

Fairly Priced to Fundamentals

Market implies 28.4% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (47.1% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

28.4%

Required to justify $23.19B EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

24.3%

Audited multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

+4.1%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

26.2%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Institutional Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (18.8% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 47.1% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $357.05/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle47.1%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+18.7% / yr

Section 4 · 5-Year Forecast Schedule

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Audited Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$2.73B	$2.73B	$3.39B	$4.21B	$5.24B	$6.51B	$8.09B
Gross Profit	$2.11B	$2.11B	$2.62B	$3.26B	$4.05B	$5.04B	$6.26B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$30.0M	$30.0M	$37.3M	$46.3M	$57.6M	$71.6M	$89.0M
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$512.7M	$512.7M	$637.2M	$792.1M	$984.6M	$1.22B	$1.52B
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$613.6M	$613.6M	$762.7M	$948.0M	$1.18B	$1.46B	$1.82B
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$100.9M	$100.9M	$125.4M	$155.9M	$193.8M	$240.9M	$299.4M

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -29.8 + 0.81 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 80%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

LITE Actual vs. Reg. Multiple8.5× vs 8.1× fair

Reg.-Implied Share Price$341.79 (+4.7% Premium)

LITELumentum Holdings Inc.·Rule of 40: 46.8%·Actual EV/Rev: 8.5×·Regression Fair Multiple: 8.1×

+4.7% Above Trendline (Premium)Open LITE Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
Lumentum Holdings Inc.	LITE	$24.82B	$2.73B	77.4%	22.5%	46.8%	18.8%	8.5×
ServiceNow	NOW	$152.61B	$10.98B	79.2%	31.1%	54.2%	15.9%	13.9×
Workday, Inc.	WDAY	$50.35B	$8.00B	75.0%	27.4%	43.9%	19.0%	6.4×
Salesforce	CRM	$217.10B	$37.90B	77.2%	32.8%	42.8%	8.4%	5.8×
Datadog	DDOG	$46.05B	$2.68B	80.8%	31.1%	57.7%	21.3%	17.4×
Snowflake Inc.	SNOW	$71.79B	$3.63B	66.5%	25.2%	57.7%	40.8%	20.0×
Hubspot	HUBS	$19.89B	$2.63B	85.0%	21.3%	52.7%	19.2%	7.7×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				78.2%	29.2%	53.5%	19.1%	10.8×

Section 6 · Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Implied Share Price	Delta vs Current
Current Multiple	8.5×	$23.19B	$24.82B	$357.05	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	6.8×	$18.55B	$20.18B	$290.31	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	5.5×	$15.08B	$16.70B	$240.25	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$13.63B	$15.26B	$219.53	-41.2%

Section 7 · Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Valuation

What is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) has a Base Case implied value of $310.28 per share (with a Bear Case of $138.10 and a Bull Case of $562.33), compared to its current price of $357.05. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

Lumentum Holdings Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 46.8%, combining a 24.3% revenue growth run-rate with a 22.5% TTM free cash flow margin on $2.73B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.

What revenue growth rate is priced into LITE stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

At $357.05 per share (Enterprise Value of $23.19B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 28.4%, compared to Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s historical CAGR of 24.3%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".

How does Lumentum Holdings Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 85/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)'s valuation?

Lumentum Holdings Inc. recorded $512.7M in TTM stock-based compensation (18.8% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.4%, scoring 10/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

WACC \ Terminal

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

8.5%

$343.55

-4%

$364.33

+2%

$388.56

+9%

$417.20

+17%

$451.57

+26%

9.3%

$309.88

-13%

$326.24

-9%

$345.03

-3%

$366.83

+3%

$392.41

+10%

10.0%

$282.22

-21%

$295.37

-17%

$310.28

-13%

$327.32

-8%

$346.99

-3%

10.8%

$259.10

-27%

$269.86

-24%

$281.92

-21%

$295.54

-17%

$311.03

-13%

11.5%

$239.51

-33%

$248.43

-30%

$258.34

-28%

$269.42

-25%

$281.88

-21%

Statement Line Item

TTM Audited Base

TTM

Revenue

$2.73B

$3.39B

$4.21B

$5.24B

$6.51B

$8.09B

Gross Profit

$2.11B

$2.62B

$3.26B

$4.05B

$5.04B

$6.26B

Operating Income (EBIT)

$30.0M

$37.3M

$46.3M

$57.6M

$71.6M

$89.0M

Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)

$512.7M

$637.2M

$792.1M

$984.6M

$1.22B

$1.52B

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)

$613.6M

$762.7M

$948.0M

$1.18B

$1.46B

$1.82B

SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow

$100.9M

$125.4M

$155.9M

$193.8M

$240.9M

$299.4M

Company

Ticker

Market Cap

TTM Revenue

Gross Margin

FCF Margin

Rule of 40

SBC % Rev

EV / Rev

Lumentum Holdings Inc.

LITE

$24.82B

$2.73B

77.4%

22.5%

46.8%

18.8%

8.5×

ServiceNow

NOW

$152.61B

$10.98B

79.2%

31.1%

54.2%

15.9%

13.9×

Workday, Inc.

WDAY

$50.35B

$8.00B

75.0%

27.4%

43.9%

19.0%

6.4×

Salesforce

CRM

$217.10B

$37.90B

77.2%

32.8%

42.8%

8.4%

5.8×

Datadog

DDOG

$46.05B

$2.68B

80.8%

31.1%

57.7%

21.3%

17.4×

Snowflake Inc.

SNOW

$71.79B

$3.63B

66.5%

25.2%

57.7%

40.8%

20.0×

Hubspot

HUBS

$19.89B

$2.63B

85.0%

21.3%

52.7%

19.2%

7.7×

Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)

78.2%

29.2%

53.5%

19.1%

10.8×

Multiple Scenario

EV / Revenue

Implied Enterprise Value

Implied Equity Value

Implied Share Price

Delta vs Current

Current Multiple

8.5×

$23.19B

$24.82B

$357.05

0.0%

-20% Multiple Compression

6.8×

$18.55B

$20.18B

$290.31

-20.0%

-35% Multiple Compression

5.5×

$15.08B

$16.70B

$240.25

-35.0%

Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)

5.0×

$13.63B

$15.26B

$219.53

-41.2%

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (85/100 · Grade A)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into LITE?

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Valuation

What is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into LITE stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does Lumentum Holdings Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (85/100 · Grade A)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into LITE?

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Valuation

What is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into LITE stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does Lumentum Holdings Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports