Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) currently trades at $77.99 with an enterprise value of $1.88B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Lattice Semiconductor Corporation at 78/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 53.8% vs. historical growth of 5.7% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test LSCC's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $77.99).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $15.90 -80% | $16.81 -78% | $17.88 -77% | $19.14 -75% | $20.66 -74% |
| 9.3% | $14.40 -82% | $15.12 -81% | $15.95 -80% | $16.91 -78% | $18.03 -77% |
| 10.0% | $13.16 -83% | $13.74 -82% | $14.40 -82% | $15.15 -81% | $16.02 -79% |
| 10.8% | $12.13 -84% | $12.60 -84% | $13.14 -83% | $13.74 -82% | $14.42 -82% |
| 11.5% | $11.25 -86% | $11.65 -85% | $12.08 -85% | $12.57 -84% | $13.12 -83% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (78/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 348% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Net cash positive: $97.5M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into LSCC?
The current share price demands 53.8% 5-year CAGR (64.1% net of SBC & dilution)—a +48.1% acceleration over historical run-rate (5.7%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (10.4% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.2%/yr). Accounting for both requires 64.1% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $77.99/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $509.4M | $509.4M | $538.4M | $569.1M | $601.6M | $635.9M | $672.1M |
| Gross Profit | $340.4M | $340.4M | $359.8M | $380.3M | $402.0M | $424.9M | $449.1M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $34.5M | $34.4M | $36.4M | $38.5M | $40.7M | $43.0M | $45.4M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $53.0M | $53.0M | $56.0M | $59.2M | $62.6M | $66.1M | $69.9M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $119.9M | $119.9M | $126.7M | $134.0M | $141.6M | $149.7M | $158.2M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $66.9M | $66.9M | $70.8M | $74.8M | $79.0M | $83.6M | $88.3M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 10.7 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lattice Semiconductor Corporation | LSCC | $10.67B | $509.4M | 66.8% | 23.5% | 29.2% | 10.4% | 20.8× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 20.8× | $10.57B | $10.67B | $77.99 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 16.6× | $8.46B | $8.55B | $62.54 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 13.5× | $6.87B | $6.97B | $50.94 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $2.55B | $2.64B | $19.33 | -75.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) Valuation
What is Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) has a Base Case implied value of $14.42 per share (with a Bear Case of $8.58 and a Bull Case of $20.95), compared to its current price of $77.99. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation achieves a Rule of 40 score of 29.2%, combining a 5.7% revenue growth run-rate with a 23.5% TTM free cash flow margin on $509.4M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into LSCC stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $77.99 per share (Enterprise Value of $10.57B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 53.8%, compared to Lattice Semiconductor Corporation's historical CAGR of 5.7%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does Lattice Semiconductor Corporation compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 78/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC)'s valuation?
Lattice Semiconductor Corporation recorded $53.0M in TTM stock-based compensation (10.4% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Lattice Semiconductor Corporation's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.6%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.