Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR) currently trades at $52.99 with an enterprise value of $3.19B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Maxar Technologies Inc. at 82/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 21.6% vs. historical growth of 17.0% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test MAXR's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $52.99).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $49.66 -6% | $52.64 -1% | $56.12 +6% | $60.23 +14% | $65.16 +23% |
| 9.3% | $44.81 -15% | $47.16 -11% | $49.86 -6% | $52.98 -0% | $56.66 +7% |
| 10.0% | $40.83 -23% | $42.72 -19% | $44.86 -15% | $47.30 -11% | $50.12 -5% |
| 10.8% | $37.50 -29% | $39.04 -26% | $40.77 -23% | $42.72 -19% | $44.95 -15% |
| 11.5% | $34.67 -35% | $35.95 -32% | $37.37 -29% | $38.96 -26% | $40.75 -23% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (82/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 173% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 80.8% gross margin and 44.5% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $196.9M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Substantial SBC dilution drag: SBC is 17.8% of revenue ($83.8M)
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into MAXR?
Market implies 21.6% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (35.0% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (17.8% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 35.0% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $52.99/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $471.0M | $471.0M | $551.1M | $644.7M | $754.3M | $882.6M | $1.03B |
| Gross Profit | $380.6M | $380.6M | $445.2M | $520.9M | $609.5M | $713.1M | $834.3M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $74.9M | $74.9M | $87.6M | $102.5M | $119.9M | $140.3M | $164.2M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $83.8M | $83.8M | $98.1M | $114.8M | $134.3M | $157.1M | $183.8M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $129.5M | $129.5M | $151.5M | $177.3M | $207.4M | $242.7M | $284.0M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $45.7M | $45.7M | $53.5M | $62.5M | $73.2M | $85.6M | $100.2M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -27.7 + 0.77 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 79%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxar Technologies Inc. | MAXR | $4.00B | $471.0M | 80.8% | 27.5% | 44.5% | 17.8% | 8.1× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 8.1× | $3.81B | $4.00B | $52.99 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 6.5× | $3.05B | $3.24B | $42.91 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 5.3× | $2.47B | $2.67B | $35.36 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $2.35B | $2.55B | $33.78 | -38.1% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR) Valuation
What is Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR) has a Base Case implied value of $44.86 per share (with a Bear Case of $21.92 and a Bull Case of $75.45), compared to its current price of $52.99. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Maxar Technologies Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 44.5%, combining a 17.0% revenue growth run-rate with a 27.5% TTM free cash flow margin on $471.0M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into MAXR stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $52.99 per share (Enterprise Value of $3.81B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 21.6%, compared to Maxar Technologies Inc.'s historical CAGR of 17.0%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Maxar Technologies Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 82/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Maxar Technologies Inc. (MAXR)'s valuation?
Maxar Technologies Inc. recorded $83.8M in TTM stock-based compensation (17.8% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Maxar Technologies Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.1%, scoring 10/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.