Research HubSoftware & Cloud ServicesMoneyLion Inc. (ML)

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SEC 10-K / 10-Q Equity ResearchSoftware & Cloud ServicesTicker: ML

MoneyLion Inc. (ML) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

MoneyLion Inc. (ML) currently trades at $85.90 with an enterprise value of $21.65B. Our proprietary institutional model rates MoneyLion Inc. at 88/100 (Grade: A+ · Elite SaaS Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of -19.8% vs. historical growth of 61.9% (Substantial Margin of Safety).

GDA Quality Score

A+88/100

Elite SaaS Compounder

Share Price / DCF Base

$85.90 / $1,914.84

Enterprise Value

$951.0M

TTM Revenue

$545.9M (+61.9%)

Gross Margin

75.0%

Rule of 40 Score

97.1%

EV / TTM Revenue

1.7×

Structural Moat: Enterprise Software & Cloud Services Switching Costs & Recurring Workflow Integration

Key Growth Catalyst: AI workflow automation, multi-module expansion across enterprise cohorts, and operating margin leverage at MoneyLion Inc..

Institutional fundamental teardown of MoneyLion Inc. (ML) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.

Seed ML in Interactive 3-Statement Model

Section 1 · Intrinsic Valuation Engine

MoneyLion Inc. (ML) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Terminal Growth: 2.5% · Diluted Shares: 11.3M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

$441.02

Implied Equity Value:$4.99B

vs Current ($85.90):+413.4%

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$1,914.84

Implied Equity Value:$21.68B

vs Current ($85.90):+2129.1%

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$4,915.14

Implied Equity Value:$55.64B

vs Current ($85.90):+5621.9%

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 97.0%

Stress-test ML's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

5Y Revenue CAGR61.9%

2%Hist: 61.9%50%

Target FCF Margin35.1%

5%Base: 35.1%45%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

6.5%Base: 10%14.5%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

1.0%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF4.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Implied Price$1,911.53

Spread vs Market+2125.3%

Simulated EV$21.62B

Effective FCF Margin35.1%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $3.53B

Year 1$883.8M

FCF:$310.2M

PV:$282.0M

Year 2$1.43B

FCF:$502.2M

PV:$415.1M

Year 3$2.32B

FCF:$813.1M

PV:$610.9M

Year 4$3.75B

FCF:$1.32B

PV:$899.2M

Year 5$6.07B

FCF:$2.13B

PV:$1.32B

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$21.62B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $3.53B (16.3%)Terminal PV: $18.09B (83.7%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$140.0M

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$118.5M

(=) Implied Equity Value (11.3M shs)$21.64B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $85.90).

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$2,145.84 +2398%	$2,295.14 +2572%	$2,469.31 +2775%	$2,675.16 +3014%	$2,922.18 +3302%
9.3%	$1,906.25 +2119%	$2,023.86 +2256%	$2,158.90 +2413%	$2,315.54 +2596%	$2,499.43 +2810%
10.0%	$1,709.80 +1890%	$1,804.36 +2001%	$1,911.53 +2125%	$2,034.00 +2268%	$2,175.32 +2432%
10.8%	$1,545.97 +1700%	$1,623.29 +1790%	$1,709.97 +1891%	$1,807.84 +2005%	$1,919.21 +2134%
11.5%	$1,407.39 +1538%	$1,471.51 +1613%	$1,542.75 +1696%	$1,622.37 +1789%	$1,711.94 +1893%

Section 2 · Fundamental Underwriting

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (88/100 · Grade A+)

Elite SaaS Compounder

Exceptional unit economics, disciplined equity dilution, and fortress balance sheet.

Cash Conversion25 / 25

Actual: 720% of EBITTarget: Target: ≥100%

Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%

Dilution Friction21 / 25

Actual: 5.1% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average

Unit Economics20 / 25

Actual: 75% GM / R40: 97%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability

Balance Sheet22 / 25

Actual: +$21.4M Net CashTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 720% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
Healthy unit economics: 75.0% gross margin
Net cash positive: $21.4M balance sheet buffer

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Section 3 · Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ML?

Substantial Margin of Safety

The current share price only requires -19.8% 5-year CAGR (-17.6% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 61.9%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

-19.8%

Required to justify $951.0M EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

61.9%

Audited multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

-81.7%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

1.5%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Institutional Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (5.1% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.6%/yr). Accounting for both requires -17.6% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $85.90/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle-17.6%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+2.2% / yr

Section 4 · 5-Year Forecast Schedule

MoneyLion Inc. (ML) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Audited Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$545.9M	$545.9M	$883.9M	$1.43B	$2.32B	$3.75B	$6.08B
Gross Profit	$409.3M	$409.3M	$662.7M	$1.07B	$1.74B	$2.81B	$4.56B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$26.7M	$26.6M	$43.1M	$69.8M	$113.1M	$183.1M	$296.5M
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$27.8M	$27.8M	$45.0M	$72.9M	$118.0M	$191.0M	$309.3M
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$191.9M	$191.8M	$310.6M	$502.9M	$814.4M	$1.32B	$2.14B
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$164.1M	$164.0M	$265.6M	$430.1M	$696.4M	$1.13B	$1.83B

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 7.5 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

ML Actual vs. Reg. Multiple1.7× vs 12.4× fair

Reg.-Implied Share Price$598.15 (85.9% Discount)

MLMoneyLion Inc.·Rule of 40: 97.1%·Actual EV/Rev: 1.7×·Regression Fair Multiple: 12.4×

85.9% Below Trendline (Attractive)Open ML Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
MoneyLion Inc.	ML	$972.4M	$545.9M	75.0%	35.1%	97.1%	5.1%	1.7×
ServiceNow	NOW	$152.61B	$10.98B	79.2%	31.1%	54.2%	15.9%	13.9×
Workday, Inc.	WDAY	$50.35B	$8.00B	75.0%	27.4%	43.9%	19.0%	6.4×
Salesforce	CRM	$217.10B	$37.90B	77.2%	32.8%	42.8%	8.4%	5.8×
Datadog	DDOG	$46.05B	$2.68B	80.8%	31.1%	57.7%	21.3%	17.4×
Snowflake Inc.	SNOW	$71.79B	$3.63B	66.5%	25.2%	57.7%	40.8%	20.0×
Hubspot	HUBS	$19.89B	$2.63B	85.0%	21.3%	52.7%	19.2%	7.7×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				78.2%	29.2%	53.5%	19.1%	10.8×

Section 6 · Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Implied Share Price	Delta vs Current
Current Multiple	1.7×	$951.0M	$972.4M	$85.90	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	1.4×	$760.8M	$782.2M	$69.10	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	1.1×	$618.1M	$639.6M	$56.50	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$2.73B	$2.75B	$243.02	+187.0%

Section 7 · Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: MoneyLion Inc. (ML) Valuation

What is MoneyLion Inc. (ML)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, MoneyLion Inc. (ML) has a Base Case implied value of $1,914.84 per share (with a Bear Case of $441.02 and a Bull Case of $4,915.14), compared to its current price of $85.90. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is MoneyLion Inc. (ML)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

MoneyLion Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 97.1%, combining a 61.9% revenue growth run-rate with a 35.1% TTM free cash flow margin on $545.9M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.

What revenue growth rate is priced into ML stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

At $85.90 per share (Enterprise Value of $951.0M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of -19.8%, compared to MoneyLion Inc.'s historical CAGR of 61.9%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".

How does MoneyLion Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

MoneyLion Inc. (ML) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 88/100 (Grade A+ — Elite SaaS Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact MoneyLion Inc. (ML)'s valuation?

MoneyLion Inc. recorded $27.8M in TTM stock-based compensation (5.1% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, MoneyLion Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 16.9%, scoring 21/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

MoneyLion Inc. (ML) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

WACC \ Terminal

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

8.5%

$2,145.84

+2398%

$2,295.14

+2572%

$2,469.31

+2775%

$2,675.16

+3014%

$2,922.18

+3302%

9.3%

$1,906.25

+2119%

$2,023.86

+2256%

$2,158.90

+2413%

$2,315.54

+2596%

$2,499.43

+2810%

10.0%

$1,709.80

+1890%

$1,804.36

+2001%

$1,911.53

+2125%

$2,034.00

+2268%

$2,175.32

+2432%

10.8%

$1,545.97

+1700%

$1,623.29

+1790%

$1,709.97

+1891%

$1,807.84

+2005%

$1,919.21

+2134%

11.5%

$1,407.39

+1538%

$1,471.51

+1613%

$1,542.75

+1696%

$1,622.37

+1789%

$1,711.94

+1893%

Statement Line Item

TTM Audited Base

TTM

Revenue

$545.9M

$883.9M

$1.43B

$2.32B

$3.75B

$6.08B

Gross Profit

$409.3M

$662.7M

$1.07B

$1.74B

$2.81B

$4.56B

Operating Income (EBIT)

$26.7M

$26.6M

$43.1M

$69.8M

$113.1M

$183.1M

$296.5M

Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)

$27.8M

$45.0M

$72.9M

$118.0M

$191.0M

$309.3M

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)

$191.9M

$191.8M

$310.6M

$502.9M

$814.4M

$1.32B

$2.14B

SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow

$164.1M

$164.0M

$265.6M

$430.1M

$696.4M

$1.13B

$1.83B

Company

Ticker

Market Cap

TTM Revenue

Gross Margin

FCF Margin

Rule of 40

SBC % Rev

EV / Rev

MoneyLion Inc.

$972.4M

$545.9M

75.0%

35.1%

97.1%

5.1%

1.7×

ServiceNow

NOW

$152.61B

$10.98B

79.2%

31.1%

54.2%

15.9%

13.9×

Workday, Inc.

WDAY

$50.35B

$8.00B

75.0%

27.4%

43.9%

19.0%

6.4×

Salesforce

CRM

$217.10B

$37.90B

77.2%

32.8%

42.8%

8.4%

5.8×

Datadog

DDOG

$46.05B

$2.68B

80.8%

31.1%

57.7%

21.3%

17.4×

Snowflake Inc.

SNOW

$71.79B

$3.63B

66.5%

25.2%

57.7%

40.8%

20.0×

Hubspot

HUBS

$19.89B

$2.63B

85.0%

21.3%

52.7%

19.2%

7.7×

Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)

78.2%

29.2%

53.5%

19.1%

10.8×

Multiple Scenario

EV / Revenue

Implied Enterprise Value

Implied Equity Value

Implied Share Price

Delta vs Current

Current Multiple

1.7×

$951.0M

$972.4M

$85.90

0.0%

-20% Multiple Compression

1.4×

$760.8M

$782.2M

$69.10

-20.0%

-35% Multiple Compression

1.1×

$618.1M

$639.6M

$56.50

-35.0%

Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)

5.0×

$2.73B

$2.75B

$243.02

+187.0%

MoneyLion Inc. (ML) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (88/100 · Grade A+)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ML?

MoneyLion Inc. (ML) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: MoneyLion Inc. (ML) Valuation

What is MoneyLion Inc. (ML)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is MoneyLion Inc. (ML)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into ML stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does MoneyLion Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact MoneyLion Inc. (ML)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports

MoneyLion Inc. (ML) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (88/100 · Grade A+)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ML?

MoneyLion Inc. (ML) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: MoneyLion Inc. (ML) Valuation

What is MoneyLion Inc. (ML)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is MoneyLion Inc. (ML)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into ML stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does MoneyLion Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact MoneyLion Inc. (ML)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports