Matterport, Inc. (MTTR) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Matterport, Inc. (MTTR) currently trades at $5.38 with an enterprise value of $1.21B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Matterport, Inc. at 65/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 29.8% vs. historical growth of 20.7% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Matterport, Inc. (MTTR) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Matterport, Inc. (MTTR) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test MTTR's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $5.38).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $4.33 -20% | $4.59 -15% | $4.90 -9% | $5.27 -2% | $5.70 +6% |
| 9.3% | $3.90 -28% | $4.11 -24% | $4.35 -19% | $4.62 -14% | $4.95 -8% |
| 10.0% | $3.55 -34% | $3.71 -31% | $3.90 -27% | $4.12 -23% | $4.37 -19% |
| 10.8% | $3.25 -40% | $3.39 -37% | $3.54 -34% | $3.72 -31% | $3.91 -27% |
| 11.5% | $3.00 -44% | $3.11 -42% | $3.24 -40% | $3.38 -37% | $3.54 -34% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (65/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Healthy unit economics: 74.3% gross margin
- Net cash positive: $67.3M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Substantial SBC dilution drag: SBC is 18.4% of revenue ($36.9M)
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into MTTR?
The current share price demands 29.8% 5-year CAGR (49.3% net of SBC & dilution)—a +9.1% acceleration over historical run-rate (20.7%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (18.4% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 49.3% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $5.38/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Matterport, Inc. (MTTR) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $200.3M | $200.3M | $241.8M | $291.8M | $352.2M | $425.1M | $513.1M |
| Gross Profit | $148.8M | $148.8M | $179.6M | $216.8M | $261.7M | $315.9M | $381.2M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-3.8M | $-3.8M | $-4.6M | $-5.5M | $-6.7M | $-8.1M | $-9.7M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $36.9M | $36.9M | $44.5M | $53.7M | $64.8M | $78.2M | $94.4M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $42.7M | $42.7M | $51.5M | $62.2M | $75.0M | $90.5M | $109.3M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $5.8M | $5.8M | $7.0M | $8.5M | $10.2M | $12.3M | $14.9M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -23.6 + 0.70 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 74%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matterport, Inc. | MTTR | $1.76B | $200.3M | 74.3% | 21.3% | 42.0% | 18.4% | 8.5× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 8.5× | $1.70B | $1.76B | $5.38 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 6.8× | $1.36B | $1.42B | $4.35 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 5.5× | $1.10B | $1.17B | $3.57 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.00B | $1.07B | $3.26 | -40.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Matterport, Inc. (MTTR) Valuation
What is Matterport, Inc. (MTTR)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Matterport, Inc. (MTTR) has a Base Case implied value of $3.90 per share (with a Bear Case of $1.78 and a Bull Case of $6.87), compared to its current price of $5.38. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Matterport, Inc. (MTTR)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Matterport, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 42.0%, combining a 20.7% revenue growth run-rate with a 21.3% TTM free cash flow margin on $200.3M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into MTTR stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $5.38 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.70B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 29.8%, compared to Matterport, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 20.7%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does Matterport, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Matterport, Inc. (MTTR) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 65/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Matterport, Inc. (MTTR)'s valuation?
Matterport, Inc. recorded $36.9M in TTM stock-based compensation (18.4% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Matterport, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.3%, scoring 10/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.