NCR Atleos Corp (NATL) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
NCR Atleos Corp (NATL) currently trades at $38.11 with an enterprise value of $3.77B. Our proprietary institutional model rates NCR Atleos Corp at 68/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of -24.0% vs. historical growth of 9.6% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
NCR Atleos Corp (NATL) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test NATL's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $38.11).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $121.97 +220% | $129.29 +239% | $137.84 +262% | $147.94 +288% | $160.06 +320% |
| 9.3% | $110.00 +189% | $115.77 +204% | $122.40 +221% | $130.08 +241% | $139.11 +265% |
| 10.0% | $100.16 +163% | $104.80 +175% | $110.06 +189% | $116.07 +205% | $123.00 +223% |
| 10.8% | $91.92 +141% | $95.72 +151% | $99.97 +162% | $104.77 +175% | $110.24 +189% |
| 11.5% | $84.93 +123% | $88.08 +131% | $91.57 +140% | $95.48 +151% | $99.87 +162% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (68/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 0.9% of revenue
- Net cash positive: $205.0M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (23.9%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into NATL?
The current share price only requires -24.0% 5-year CAGR (-23.3% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 9.6%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (0.9% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.1%/yr). Accounting for both requires -23.3% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $38.11/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
NCR Atleos Corp (NATL) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.32B | $4.32B | $4.73B | $5.19B | $5.69B | $6.23B | $6.83B |
| Gross Profit | $1.03B | $1.03B | $1.13B | $1.24B | $1.36B | $1.49B | $1.63B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $449.0M | $449.0M | $492.1M | $539.4M | $591.2M | $648.1M | $710.3M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $38.0M | $38.0M | $41.6M | $45.6M | $50.0M | $54.8M | $60.1M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $205.0M | $205.1M | $224.8M | $246.4M | $270.0M | $296.0M | $324.4M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $167.0M | $167.1M | $183.1M | $200.7M | $220.0M | $241.2M | $264.3M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -7.5 + 0.38 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 70%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCR Atleos Corp | NATL | $2.82B | $4.32B | 23.9% | 4.8% | 14.4% | 0.9% | 0.6× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 0.6× | $2.61B | $2.82B | $38.11 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 0.5× | $2.09B | $2.29B | $31.04 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 0.4× | $1.70B | $1.90B | $25.74 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $21.59B | $21.79B | $294.85 | +726.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions: NCR Atleos Corp (NATL) Valuation
What is NCR Atleos Corp (NATL)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, NCR Atleos Corp (NATL) has a Base Case implied value of $53.75 per share (with a Bear Case of $29.76 and a Bull Case of $82.52), compared to its current price of $38.11. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is NCR Atleos Corp (NATL)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
NCR Atleos Corp achieves a Rule of 40 score of 14.4%, combining a 9.6% revenue growth run-rate with a 4.7% TTM free cash flow margin on $4.32B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into NATL stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $38.11 per share (Enterprise Value of $2.61B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of -24.0%, compared to NCR Atleos Corp's historical CAGR of 9.6%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does NCR Atleos Corp compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
NCR Atleos Corp (NATL) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 68/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact NCR Atleos Corp (NATL)'s valuation?
NCR Atleos Corp recorded $38.0M in TTM stock-based compensation (0.9% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, NCR Atleos Corp's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 5.9%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.