OppFi Inc. (OPFI) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
OppFi Inc. (OPFI) currently trades at $10.50 with an enterprise value of $769.9M. Our proprietary institutional model rates OppFi Inc. at 82/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 19.9% vs. historical growth of 17.5% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of OppFi Inc. (OPFI) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
OppFi Inc. (OPFI) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test OPFI's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $10.50).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $10.67 +2% | $11.29 +8% | $12.02 +14% | $12.88 +23% | $13.91 +32% |
| 9.3% | $9.65 -8% | $10.14 -3% | $10.71 +2% | $11.36 +8% | $12.13 +16% |
| 10.0% | $8.82 -16% | $9.22 -12% | $9.66 -8% | $10.17 -3% | $10.76 +3% |
| 10.8% | $8.12 -23% | $8.45 -20% | $8.81 -16% | $9.22 -12% | $9.68 -8% |
| 11.5% | $7.53 -28% | $7.80 -26% | $8.10 -23% | $8.43 -20% | $8.80 -16% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (82/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 421% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 82.3% gross margin and 41.9% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $73.7M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Substantial SBC dilution drag: SBC is 19.4% of revenue ($24.4M)
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into OPFI?
Market implies 19.9% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (36.5% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (19.4% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 36.5% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $10.50/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
OppFi Inc. (OPFI) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $125.6M | $125.6M | $147.6M | $173.4M | $203.7M | $239.4M | $281.3M |
| Gross Profit | $103.4M | $103.4M | $121.4M | $142.7M | $167.7M | $197.0M | $231.5M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $7.3M | $7.3M | $8.6M | $10.1M | $11.8M | $13.9M | $16.3M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $24.4M | $24.4M | $28.6M | $33.6M | $39.5M | $46.4M | $54.6M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $30.6M | $30.6M | $36.0M | $42.3M | $49.7M | $58.4M | $68.6M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $6.3M | $6.3M | $7.4M | $8.7M | $10.2M | $12.0M | $14.1M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -26.1 + 0.74 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 79%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OppFi Inc. | OPFI | $916.7M | $125.6M | 82.3% | 24.4% | 41.9% | 19.4% | 6.7× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 6.7× | $843.0M | $916.7M | $10.50 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 5.4× | $674.4M | $748.1M | $8.57 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 4.4× | $548.0M | $621.7M | $7.12 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $627.9M | $701.6M | $8.04 | -25.5% |
Frequently Asked Questions: OppFi Inc. (OPFI) Valuation
What is OppFi Inc. (OPFI)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, OppFi Inc. (OPFI) has a Base Case implied value of $9.66 per share (with a Bear Case of $4.84 and a Bull Case of $16.15), compared to its current price of $10.50. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is OppFi Inc. (OPFI)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
OppFi Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 41.9%, combining a 17.5% revenue growth run-rate with a 24.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $125.6M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into OPFI stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $10.50 per share (Enterprise Value of $843.0M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 19.9%, compared to OppFi Inc.'s historical CAGR of 17.5%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does OppFi Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
OppFi Inc. (OPFI) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 82/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact OppFi Inc. (OPFI)'s valuation?
OppFi Inc. recorded $24.4M in TTM stock-based compensation (19.4% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, OppFi Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.7%, scoring 10/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.