Photronics, Inc. (PLAB) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Photronics, Inc. (PLAB) currently trades at $33.38 with an enterprise value of $650.8M. Our proprietary institutional model rates Photronics, Inc. at 66/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 44.1% vs. historical growth of 14.6% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Photronics, Inc. (PLAB) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Photronics, Inc. (PLAB) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test PLAB's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $33.38).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $14.03 -58% | $14.79 -56% | $15.68 -53% | $16.73 -50% | $17.99 -46% |
| 9.3% | $12.78 -62% | $13.38 -60% | $14.07 -58% | $14.87 -55% | $15.81 -53% |
| 10.0% | $11.76 -65% | $12.24 -63% | $12.79 -62% | $13.42 -60% | $14.14 -58% |
| 10.8% | $10.91 -67% | $11.30 -66% | $11.75 -65% | $12.25 -63% | $12.81 -62% |
| 11.5% | $10.18 -69% | $10.51 -69% | $10.87 -67% | $11.28 -66% | $11.74 -65% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (66/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Net cash positive: $111.7M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into PLAB?
The current share price demands 44.1% 5-year CAGR (63.9% net of SBC & dilution)—a +29.5% acceleration over historical run-rate (14.6%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (9.8% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 63.9% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $33.38/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Photronics, Inc. (PLAB) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $239.7M | $239.7M | $274.7M | $314.8M | $360.8M | $413.5M | $473.8M |
| Gross Profit | $178.1M | $178.1M | $204.1M | $233.9M | $268.1M | $307.2M | $352.1M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-4.3M | $-4.3M | $-4.9M | $-5.7M | $-6.5M | $-7.4M | $-8.5M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $23.5M | $23.5M | $26.9M | $30.9M | $35.4M | $40.5M | $46.4M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $29.0M | $29.0M | $33.2M | $38.1M | $43.7M | $50.0M | $57.3M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $5.5M | $5.5M | $6.3M | $7.2M | $8.3M | $9.5M | $10.9M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -5.7 + 0.35 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 47%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Photronics, Inc. | PLAB | $1.99B | $239.7M | 74.3% | 12.1% | 26.7% | 9.8% | 7.8× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 7.8× | $1.88B | $1.99B | $33.38 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 6.3× | $1.50B | $1.61B | $27.08 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 5.1× | $1.22B | $1.33B | $22.35 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.20B | $1.31B | $21.98 | -36.2% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Photronics, Inc. (PLAB) Valuation
What is Photronics, Inc. (PLAB)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Photronics, Inc. (PLAB) has a Base Case implied value of $12.79 per share (with a Bear Case of $7.10 and a Bull Case of $20.13), compared to its current price of $33.38. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Photronics, Inc. (PLAB)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Photronics, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 26.7%, combining a 14.6% revenue growth run-rate with a 12.1% TTM free cash flow margin on $239.7M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into PLAB stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $33.38 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.88B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 44.1%, compared to Photronics, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 14.6%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does Photronics, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Photronics, Inc. (PLAB) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 66/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Photronics, Inc. (PLAB)'s valuation?
Photronics, Inc. recorded $23.5M in TTM stock-based compensation (9.8% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Photronics, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.3%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.
