ePlus inc. (PLUS) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
ePlus inc. (PLUS) currently trades at $86.50 with an enterprise value of $4.91B. Our proprietary institutional model rates ePlus inc. at 80/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of -13.0% vs. historical growth of 7.2% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of ePlus inc. (PLUS) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
ePlus inc. (PLUS) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test PLUS's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $86.50).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $216.60 +150% | $229.16 +165% | $243.82 +182% | $261.13 +202% | $281.92 +226% |
| 9.3% | $196.05 +127% | $205.95 +138% | $217.31 +151% | $230.49 +166% | $245.96 +184% |
| 10.0% | $179.15 +107% | $187.10 +116% | $196.12 +127% | $206.42 +139% | $218.31 +152% |
| 10.8% | $164.99 +91% | $171.50 +98% | $178.79 +107% | $187.02 +116% | $196.39 +127% |
| 11.5% | $152.97 +77% | $158.37 +83% | $164.36 +90% | $171.06 +98% | $178.59 +106% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (80/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 209% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 0.5% of revenue
- Net cash positive: $261.1M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (26.6%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into PLUS?
The current share price only requires -13.0% 5-year CAGR (-12.5% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 7.2%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (0.5% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.1%/yr). Accounting for both requires -12.5% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $86.50/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
ePlus inc. (PLUS) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.07B | $2.07B | $2.22B | $2.38B | $2.55B | $2.73B | $2.92B |
| Gross Profit | $550.5M | $550.5M | $590.0M | $632.3M | $677.6M | $726.2M | $778.3M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $141.4M | $141.5M | $151.7M | $162.5M | $174.2M | $186.7M | $200.0M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $10.0M | $9.9M | $10.6M | $11.4M | $12.2M | $13.1M | $14.0M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $295.5M | $295.6M | $316.8M | $339.5M | $363.9M | $390.0M | $417.9M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $285.5M | $285.7M | $306.2M | $328.1M | $351.7M | $376.9M | $403.9M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -11.6 + 0.46 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 74%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ePlus inc. | PLUS | $2.29B | $2.07B | 26.6% | 14.3% | 21.5% | 0.5% | 1.0× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 1.0× | $2.03B | $2.29B | $86.50 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 0.8× | $1.62B | $1.88B | $71.17 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 0.6× | $1.32B | $1.58B | $59.68 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $10.34B | $10.61B | $401.11 | +410.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions: ePlus inc. (PLUS) Valuation
What is ePlus inc. (PLUS)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, ePlus inc. (PLUS) has a Base Case implied value of $195.76 per share (with a Bear Case of $113.35 and a Bull Case of $290.37), compared to its current price of $86.50. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is ePlus inc. (PLUS)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
ePlus inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 21.5%, combining a 7.2% revenue growth run-rate with a 14.3% TTM free cash flow margin on $2.07B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into PLUS stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $86.50 per share (Enterprise Value of $2.03B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of -13.0%, compared to ePlus inc.'s historical CAGR of 7.2%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does ePlus inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
ePlus inc. (PLUS) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 80/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact ePlus inc. (PLUS)'s valuation?
ePlus inc. recorded $10.0M in TTM stock-based compensation (0.5% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, ePlus inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 12.5%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.
