QNT Stock DCF Valuation & Research (Quantinuum)

Intrinsic Valuation Summary

Quantinuum Inc. (QNT) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Term Growth: 2.5% · Shares: 125.4M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

$6.74B

Implied Enterprise Value:$5.10B

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$13.07B

Implied Enterprise Value:$11.42B

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$21.66B

Implied Enterprise Value:$20.02B

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 32.9%

Stress-test QNT's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

3-Stage R&D Efficiency SimulatorR&D Capital Return & Operating Leverage Thesis for QNT

Simulate how autonomous code velocity and R&D capital efficiency expand QNT's operating leverage, 5-year FCF margin, DCF enterprise value, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.

Modeled Gross / FCF Margin

80.9% GM · 14.6% FCF

Implied DCF EV (Stage 1)

$11.42B (Eq: $13.07B)

R&D Return 2x2 Trajectory

SEC R&D Benchmark Coverage

Plot on 2x2 Benchmark Open in /model

5Y Revenue CAGR18.3%

2%Hist: 18.3%60%

Target FCF Margin14.6%

2%Base: 14.6%65%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

5%Base: 10%18%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

0.5%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF5.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Enterprise Value$11.42B

Simulated Equity Value$13.07B

Effective FCF Margin14.6%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $2.76B

Year 1$3.57B

FCF:$521.5M

PV:$474.1M

Year 2$4.23B

FCF:$617.0M

PV:$509.9M

Year 3$5.00B

FCF:$729.9M

PV:$548.4M

Year 4$5.91B

FCF:$863.5M

PV:$589.8M

Year 5$7.00B

FCF:$1.02B

PV:$634.3M

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$11.42B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $2.76B (24.1%)Terminal PV: $8.67B (75.9%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$2.24B

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$597.9M

(=) Implied Equity Value (125.4M shs)$13.07B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied DCF sensitivity across 25 valuation states.

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$14.37B +10%	$15.18B +16%	$16.13B +23%	$17.25B +32%	$18.59B +42%
9.3%	$13.06B -0%	$13.70B +5%	$14.43B +10%	$15.28B +17%	$16.28B +25%
10.0%	$11.98B -8%	$12.49B -4%	$13.07B +0%	$13.73B +5%	$14.50B +11%
10.8%	$11.07B -15%	$11.49B -12%	$11.96B -8%	$12.49B -4%	$13.10B +0%
11.5%	$10.30B -21%	$10.65B -19%	$11.04B -16%	$11.47B -12%	$11.96B -9%

5-Year Financial Forecast

Quantinuum Inc. (QNT) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Reported Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$3.02B	$3.02B	$3.57B	$4.23B	$5.00B	$5.91B	$7.00B
Gross Profit	$2.44B	$2.44B	$2.89B	$3.42B	$4.04B	$4.78B	$5.66B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$135.9M	$135.9M	$160.7M	$190.2M	$225.0M	$266.1M	$314.8M
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$320.1M	$320.1M	$378.7M	$447.9M	$529.9M	$626.9M	$741.6M
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$440.9M	$440.9M	$521.5M	$617.0M	$729.9M	$863.5M	$1.02B
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$120.8M	$120.8M	$142.9M	$169.0M	$200.0M	$236.6M	$279.9M

Fundamental Quality Breakdown

Software Quality Scorecard (83/100 · Grade A)

High-Quality Compounder

Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.

Cash Conversion25 / 25

Actual: 324% of EBITTarget: Target: ≥100%

Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%

Dilution Friction16 / 25

Actual: 10.6% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees

Unit Economics20 / 25

Actual: 81% GM / R40: 33%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability

Balance Sheet22 / 25

Actual: +$1.65B Net CashTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 324% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
Healthy unit economics: 80.9% gross margin
Net cash positive: $1.65B balance sheet buffer

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into QNT?

Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In

The current share price demands 35.2% 5-year CAGR (51.8% net of SBC & dilution)—a +16.9% acceleration over historical run-rate (18.3%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

35.2%

Required to justify $21.14B EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

18.3%

Reported multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

+16.9%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

27.0%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (10.6% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 51.8% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $21.14B EV on a true economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle51.8%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+16.6% / yr

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software - Infrastructure Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -0.0 + 0.17 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 45%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

QNT Actual vs. Reg. Multiple7.0× vs 5.5× fair

Peer Multiple Spread+27.4% Premium

QNTQuantinuum Inc.·Rule of 40: 32.9%·Actual EV/Rev: 7.0×·Regression Fair Multiple: 5.5×

+27.4% Above Trendline (Premium)Open QNT Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
Quantinuum Inc.	QNT	$22.78B	$3.02B	80.9%	14.6%	32.9%	10.6%	7.0×
Block, Inc.	XYZ	$41.67B	$25.04B	46.4%	15.5%	23.7%	4.8%	1.6×
VeriSign, Inc.	VRSN	$22.52B	$1.56B	87.7%	56.1%	61.5%	3.9%	15.5×
CORPAY, INC.	CPAY	$22.17B	$3.97B	78.1%	44.4%	52.1%	2.9%	7.2×
Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz	KSPI	$11,481.85B	$2,520.93B	62.3%	19.3%	59.8%	—	4.4×
SailPoint, Inc.	SAIL	$10.94B	$1.17B	66.2%	16.7%	40.5%	20.4%	9.1×
AMDOCS LTD	DOX	$9.06B	$4.53B	36.6%	14.2%	10.5%	—	2.1×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				64.3%	18.0%	46.3%	4.4%	5.8×

Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Delta vs Base
Current Multiple	7.0×	$21.14B	$22.78B	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	5.6×	$16.91B	$18.56B	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	4.6×	$13.74B	$15.38B	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$15.10B	$16.74B	-28.6%

Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: Quantinuum Inc. (QNT) Valuation

What is Quantinuum Inc. (QNT)'s intrinsic 5-year DCF valuation?

Based on modeled estimates (SEC filing data not yet available) and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Quantinuum Inc. (QNT) has a Base Case 5-year DCF Enterprise Value of $11.42B and an implied Equity Value of $13.07B (ranging from $6.74B in the Bear Case to $21.66B in the Bull Case). The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is Quantinuum Inc. (QNT)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

Quantinuum Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 32.9%, combining a 18.3% revenue growth run-rate with a 14.6% TTM free cash flow margin on $3.02B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Infrastructure peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 46.3%.

What revenue growth rate is required under QNT's Reverse-DCF analysis?

At a 5-year DCF Enterprise Value of $21.14B, our Reverse-DCF solver indicates a 5-year implied revenue CAGR hurdle of 35.2%, compared to Quantinuum Inc.'s historical CAGR of 18.3%. Overall expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".

What is Quantinuum Inc. (QNT)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?

Quantinuum Inc. (QNT) R&D productivity is evaluated alongside 174 ranked software companies on the Golden Door R&D Return Benchmark.

How does Quantinuum Inc. compare to Software - Infrastructure peers?

Quantinuum Inc. (QNT) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 83/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software - Infrastructure peer group (XYZ, VRSN, CPAY, KSPI, SAIL), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 5.8× and a median gross margin of 64.3%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Quantinuum Inc. (QNT)'s valuation?

Quantinuum Inc. recorded $320.1M in TTM stock-based compensation (10.6% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Quantinuum Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.5%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

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