Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT) currently trades at $11.96 with an enterprise value of $2.20B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Quantum Computing, Inc. at 82/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 8.5% vs. historical growth of 17.9% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test QUBT's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $11.96).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $18.80 +57% | $19.94 +67% | $21.27 +78% | $22.84 +91% | $24.73 +107% |
| 9.3% | $16.95 +42% | $17.84 +49% | $18.88 +58% | $20.07 +68% | $21.48 +80% |
| 10.0% | $15.42 +29% | $16.14 +35% | $16.96 +42% | $17.90 +50% | $18.98 +59% |
| 10.8% | $14.15 +18% | $14.74 +23% | $15.40 +29% | $16.15 +35% | $17.00 +42% |
| 11.5% | $13.07 +9% | $13.56 +13% | $14.10 +18% | $14.71 +23% | $15.39 +29% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (82/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 195% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 81.4% gross margin and 50.1% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $116.4M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Substantial SBC dilution drag: SBC is 20.7% of revenue ($55.4M)
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into QUBT?
The current share price only requires 8.5% 5-year CAGR (20.8% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 17.9%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (20.7% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 20.8% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $11.96/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $267.6M | $267.6M | $315.5M | $372.0M | $438.6M | $517.1M | $609.7M |
| Gross Profit | $217.9M | $217.9M | $256.8M | $302.8M | $357.0M | $420.9M | $496.3M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $44.2M | $44.2M | $52.1M | $61.4M | $72.4M | $85.3M | $100.6M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $55.4M | $55.4M | $65.3M | $77.0M | $90.8M | $107.0M | $126.2M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $86.2M | $86.2M | $101.6M | $119.8M | $141.2M | $166.5M | $196.3M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $30.8M | $30.8M | $36.3M | $42.8M | $50.4M | $59.5M | $70.1M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -32.4 + 0.84 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 72%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantum Computing, Inc. | QUBT | $1.63B | $267.6M | 81.4% | 32.2% | 50.1% | 20.7% | 5.7× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 5.7× | $1.52B | $1.63B | $11.96 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 4.5× | $1.21B | $1.33B | $9.74 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.7× | $985.5M | $1.10B | $8.07 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.34B | $1.45B | $10.66 | -11.7% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT) Valuation
What is Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT) has a Base Case implied value of $16.96 per share (with a Bear Case of $8.09 and a Bull Case of $28.94), compared to its current price of $11.96. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Quantum Computing, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 50.1%, combining a 17.9% revenue growth run-rate with a 32.2% TTM free cash flow margin on $267.6M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into QUBT stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $11.96 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.52B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 8.5%, compared to Quantum Computing, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 17.9%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does Quantum Computing, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 82/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Quantum Computing, Inc. (QUBT)'s valuation?
Quantum Computing, Inc. recorded $55.4M in TTM stock-based compensation (20.7% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Quantum Computing, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.9%, scoring 10/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.