Rogers Corporation (ROG) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Rogers Corporation (ROG) currently trades at $93.42 with an enterprise value of $1.71B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Rogers Corporation at 88/100 (Grade: A+ · Elite SaaS Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 16.5% vs. historical growth of 19.2% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Rogers Corporation (ROG) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Rogers Corporation (ROG) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test ROG's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $93.42).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $113.66 +22% | $120.42 +29% | $128.30 +37% | $137.62 +47% | $148.80 +59% |
| 9.3% | $102.68 +10% | $108.00 +16% | $114.12 +22% | $121.21 +30% | $129.53 +39% |
| 10.0% | $93.66 +0% | $97.94 +5% | $102.79 +10% | $108.33 +16% | $114.73 +23% |
| 10.8% | $86.12 -8% | $89.62 -4% | $93.54 +0% | $97.97 +5% | $103.01 +10% |
| 11.5% | $79.72 -15% | $82.62 -12% | $85.85 -8% | $89.45 -4% | $93.50 +0% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (88/100 · Grade A+)
Exceptional unit economics, disciplined equity dilution, and fortress balance sheet.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 635% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 80.1% gross margin and 42.7% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $140.4M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ROG?
Market implies 16.5% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (28.0% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (13.4% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 28.0% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $93.42/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Rogers Corporation (ROG) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $271.0M | $271.0M | $323.0M | $385.0M | $459.0M | $547.1M | $652.1M |
| Gross Profit | $217.1M | $217.1M | $258.7M | $308.4M | $367.6M | $438.2M | $522.3M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $10.0M | $10.0M | $12.0M | $14.2M | $17.0M | $20.2M | $24.1M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $36.3M | $36.3M | $43.3M | $51.6M | $61.5M | $73.3M | $87.4M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $63.7M | $63.7M | $75.9M | $90.5M | $107.9M | $128.6M | $153.2M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $27.4M | $27.4M | $32.6M | $38.9M | $46.4M | $55.3M | $65.9M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -28.7 + 0.79 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 82%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers Corporation | ROG | $1.68B | $271.0M | 80.1% | 23.5% | 42.7% | 13.4% | 5.7× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 5.7× | $1.54B | $1.68B | $93.42 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 4.5× | $1.23B | $1.37B | $76.30 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.7× | $1.00B | $1.14B | $63.45 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.35B | $1.50B | $83.14 | -12.0% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Rogers Corporation (ROG) Valuation
What is Rogers Corporation (ROG)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Rogers Corporation (ROG) has a Base Case implied value of $102.79 per share (with a Bear Case of $49.45 and a Bull Case of $176.03), compared to its current price of $93.42. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Rogers Corporation (ROG)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Rogers Corporation achieves a Rule of 40 score of 42.7%, combining a 19.2% revenue growth run-rate with a 23.5% TTM free cash flow margin on $271.0M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into ROG stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $93.42 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.54B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 16.5%, compared to Rogers Corporation's historical CAGR of 19.2%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Rogers Corporation compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Rogers Corporation (ROG) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 88/100 (Grade A+ — Elite SaaS Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Rogers Corporation (ROG)'s valuation?
Rogers Corporation recorded $36.3M in TTM stock-based compensation (13.4% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Rogers Corporation's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.6%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.