SECZ Stock DCF Valuation & Research (Securitize)

Intrinsic Valuation Summary

Securitize Corp. (SECZ) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Term Growth: 2.5% · Shares: 247.0M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

$6.75B

Implied Enterprise Value:$6.31B

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$13.95B

Implied Enterprise Value:$13.51B

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$23.42B

Implied Enterprise Value:$22.98B

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 41.6%

Stress-test SECZ's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

3-Stage R&D Efficiency SimulatorR&D Capital Return & Operating Leverage Thesis for SECZ

Simulate how autonomous code velocity and R&D capital efficiency expand SECZ's operating leverage, 5-year FCF margin, DCF enterprise value, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.

Modeled Gross / FCF Margin

73.8% GM · 25.7% FCF

Implied DCF EV (Stage 1)

$13.51B (Eq: $13.95B)

R&D Return 2x2 Trajectory

SEC R&D Benchmark Coverage

Plot on 2x2 Benchmark Open in /model

5Y Revenue CAGR15.9%

2%Hist: 15.9%60%

Target FCF Margin25.7%

2%Base: 25.7%65%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

5%Base: 10%18%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

0.5%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF5.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Enterprise Value$13.51B

Simulated Equity Value$13.95B

Effective FCF Margin25.7%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $3.36B

Year 1$2.58B

FCF:$663.3M

PV:$603.0M

Year 2$2.99B

FCF:$768.8M

PV:$635.4M

Year 3$3.47B

FCF:$891.1M

PV:$669.5M

Year 4$4.02B

FCF:$1.03B

PV:$705.4M

Year 5$4.66B

FCF:$1.20B

PV:$743.2M

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$13.51B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $3.36B (24.8%)Terminal PV: $10.16B (75.2%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$991.0M

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$554.5M

(=) Implied Equity Value (247.0M shs)$13.95B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied DCF sensitivity across 25 valuation states.

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$15.48B +11%	$16.43B +18%	$17.54B +26%	$18.85B +35%	$20.42B +46%
9.3%	$13.94B -0%	$14.69B +5%	$15.54B +11%	$16.54B +19%	$17.71B +27%
10.0%	$12.67B -9%	$13.27B -5%	$13.95B +0%	$14.73B +6%	$15.63B +12%
10.8%	$11.61B -17%	$12.10B -13%	$12.65B -9%	$13.27B -5%	$13.98B +0%
11.5%	$10.70B -23%	$11.11B -20%	$11.57B -17%	$12.07B -13%	$12.64B -9%

5-Year Financial Forecast

Securitize Corp. (SECZ) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Reported Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$2.23B	$2.23B	$2.58B	$2.99B	$3.47B	$4.02B	$4.66B
Gross Profit	$1.64B	$1.64B	$1.90B	$2.21B	$2.56B	$2.97B	$3.44B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$204.9M	$204.9M	$237.5M	$275.2M	$319.0M	$369.7M	$428.5M
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$314.0M	$314.0M	$363.9M	$421.8M	$488.9M	$566.6M	$656.7M
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$572.3M	$572.3M	$663.3M	$768.8M	$891.1M	$1.03B	$1.20B
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$258.3M	$258.3M	$299.4M	$347.0M	$402.2M	$466.1M	$540.3M

Fundamental Quality Breakdown

Software Quality Scorecard (83/100 · Grade A)

High-Quality Compounder

Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.

Cash Conversion25 / 25

Actual: 279% of EBITTarget: Target: ≥100%

Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%

Dilution Friction16 / 25

Actual: 14.1% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees

Unit Economics20 / 25

Actual: 74% GM / R40: 42%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability

Balance Sheet22 / 25

Actual: +$436.5M Net CashTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 279% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
Healthy unit economics: 73.8% gross margin
Net cash positive: $436.5M balance sheet buffer

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into SECZ?

Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In

The current share price demands 34.2% 5-year CAGR (46.4% net of SBC & dilution)—a +18.3% acceleration over historical run-rate (15.9%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

34.2%

Required to justify $26.50B EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

15.9%

Reported multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

+18.3%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

50.4%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (14.1% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 46.4% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $26.50B EV on a true economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle46.4%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+12.3% / yr

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software - Infrastructure Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 0.2 + 0.17 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 41%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

SECZ Actual vs. Reg. Multiple11.9× vs 7.4× fair

Peer Multiple Spread+59.9% Premium

SECZSecuritize Corp.·Rule of 40: 41.6%·Actual EV/Rev: 11.9×·Regression Fair Multiple: 7.4×

+59.9% Above Trendline (Premium)Open SECZ Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
Securitize Corp.	SECZ	$26.94B	$2.23B	73.8%	25.7%	41.6%	14.1%	11.9×
Block, Inc.	XYZ	$41.67B	$25.04B	46.4%	15.5%	23.7%	4.8%	1.6×
VeriSign, Inc.	VRSN	$22.52B	$1.56B	87.7%	56.1%	61.5%	3.9%	15.5×
CORPAY, INC.	CPAY	$22.17B	$3.97B	78.1%	44.4%	52.1%	2.9%	7.2×
Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz	KSPI	$11,481.85B	$2,520.93B	62.3%	19.3%	59.8%	—	4.4×
SailPoint, Inc.	SAIL	$10.94B	$1.17B	66.2%	16.7%	40.5%	20.4%	9.1×
AMDOCS LTD	DOX	$9.06B	$4.53B	36.6%	14.2%	10.5%	—	2.1×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				64.3%	18.0%	46.3%	4.4%	5.8×

Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Delta vs Base
Current Multiple	11.9×	$26.50B	$26.94B	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	9.5×	$21.20B	$21.64B	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	7.7×	$17.23B	$17.66B	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$11.14B	$11.57B	-58.0%

Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: Securitize Corp. (SECZ) Valuation

What is Securitize Corp. (SECZ)'s intrinsic 5-year DCF valuation?

Based on modeled estimates (SEC filing data not yet available) and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Securitize Corp. (SECZ) has a Base Case 5-year DCF Enterprise Value of $13.51B and an implied Equity Value of $13.95B (ranging from $6.75B in the Bear Case to $23.42B in the Bull Case). The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is Securitize Corp. (SECZ)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

Securitize Corp. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 41.6%, combining a 15.9% revenue growth run-rate with a 25.7% TTM free cash flow margin on $2.23B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Infrastructure peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 46.3%.

What revenue growth rate is required under SECZ's Reverse-DCF analysis?

At a 5-year DCF Enterprise Value of $26.50B, our Reverse-DCF solver indicates a 5-year implied revenue CAGR hurdle of 34.2%, compared to Securitize Corp.'s historical CAGR of 15.9%. Overall expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".

What is Securitize Corp. (SECZ)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?

Securitize Corp. (SECZ) R&D productivity is evaluated alongside 174 ranked software companies on the Golden Door R&D Return Benchmark.

How does Securitize Corp. compare to Software - Infrastructure peers?

Securitize Corp. (SECZ) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 83/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software - Infrastructure peer group (XYZ, VRSN, CPAY, KSPI, SAIL), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 5.8× and a median gross margin of 64.3%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Securitize Corp. (SECZ)'s valuation?

Securitize Corp. recorded $314.0M in TTM stock-based compensation (14.1% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Securitize Corp.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.0%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

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