Research HubSoftware & Cloud ServicesStubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)

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SEC 10-K / 10-Q Equity ResearchSoftware & Cloud ServicesTicker: STUB

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) currently trades at $13.45 with an enterprise value of $47.95B. Our proprietary institutional model rates StubHub Holdings, Inc. at 87/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 14.2% vs. historical growth of 165.5% (Substantial Margin of Safety).

GDA Quality Score

A87/100

High-Quality Compounder

Share Price / DCF Base

$13.45 / $145.34

Enterprise Value

$5.65B

TTM Revenue

$1.77B (+165.5%)

Gross Margin

81.1%

Rule of 40 Score

179.9%

EV / TTM Revenue

3.2×

Structural Moat: Enterprise Software & Cloud Services Switching Costs & Recurring Workflow Integration

Key Growth Catalyst: AI workflow automation, multi-module expansion across enterprise cohorts, and operating margin leverage at StubHub Holdings, Inc..

Institutional fundamental teardown of StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.

Seed STUB in Interactive 3-Statement Model

Section 1 · Intrinsic Valuation Engine

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Terminal Growth: 2.5% · Diluted Shares: 320.8M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

$23.84

Implied Equity Value:$7.65B

vs Current ($13.45):+77.2%

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$145.34

Implied Equity Value:$46.62B

vs Current ($13.45):+980.6%

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$420.55

Implied Equity Value:$134.91B

vs Current ($13.45):+3026.8%

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 179.9%

Stress-test STUB's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

5Y Revenue CAGR165.5%

2%Hist: 165.5%50%

Target FCF Margin14.4%

5%Base: 14.4%45%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

6.5%Base: 10%14.5%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

1.0%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF4.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Implied Price$995.47

Spread vs Market+7301.2%

Simulated EV$320.67B

Effective FCF Margin14.4%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $35.23B

Year 1$4.70B

FCF:$677.0M

PV:$615.4M

Year 2$12.48B

FCF:$1.80B

PV:$1.49B

Year 3$33.14B

FCF:$4.77B

PV:$3.59B

Year 4$87.98B

FCF:$12.67B

PV:$8.65B

Year 5$233.59B

FCF:$33.64B

PV:$20.89B

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$320.67B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $35.23B (11.0%)Terminal PV: $285.44B (89.0%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$1.00B

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$2.33B

(=) Implied Equity Value (320.8M shs)$319.34B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $13.45).

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$1,123.58 +8254%	$1,206.73 +8872%	$1,303.73 +9593%	$1,418.37 +10446%	$1,555.94 +11468%
9.3%	$991.36 +7271%	$1,056.86 +7758%	$1,132.06 +8317%	$1,219.30 +8965%	$1,321.70 +9727%
10.0%	$883.12 +6466%	$935.78 +6857%	$995.47 +7301%	$1,063.67 +7808%	$1,142.37 +8393%
10.8%	$793.02 +5796%	$836.08 +6116%	$884.35 +6475%	$938.86 +6880%	$1,000.88 +7341%
11.5%	$716.95 +5230%	$752.66 +5496%	$792.33 +5791%	$836.67 +6121%	$886.56 +6491%

Section 2 · Fundamental Underwriting

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (87/100 · Grade A)

High-Quality Compounder

Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.

Cash Conversion25 / 25

Actual: 185% of EBITTarget: Target: ≥100%

Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%

Dilution Friction25 / 25

Actual: 0.4% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders

Unit Economics25 / 25

Actual: 81% GM / R40: 180%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40

Balance Sheet12 / 25

Actual: -$1.33B Net DebtTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 185% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
Low dilution friction: SBC is only 0.4% of revenue
Top-quartile software unit economics: 81.1% gross margin and 179.9% Rule of 40 score

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Section 3 · Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into STUB?

Substantial Margin of Safety

The current share price only requires 14.2% 5-year CAGR (14.7% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 165.5%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

14.2%

Required to justify $5.65B EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

165.5%

Audited multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

-151.2%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

0.3%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Institutional Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (0.4% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.1%/yr). Accounting for both requires 14.7% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $13.45/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle14.7%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+0.4% / yr

Section 4 · 5-Year Forecast Schedule

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Audited Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$1.77B	$1.77B	$3.19B	$5.74B	$10.33B	$18.59B	$33.46B
Gross Profit	$1.44B	$1.44B	$2.59B	$4.65B	$8.38B	$15.08B	$27.14B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$138.1M	$138.1M	$248.6M	$447.5M	$805.5M	$1.45B	$2.61B
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$7.7M	$7.8M	$14.0M	$25.2M	$45.4M	$81.8M	$147.2M
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$255.1M	$255.1M	$459.3M	$826.7M	$1.49B	$2.68B	$4.82B
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$247.4M	$247.4M	$445.2M	$801.4M	$1.44B	$2.60B	$4.67B

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 7.1 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 17%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

STUB Actual vs. Reg. Multiple3.2× vs 16.1× fair

Reg.-Implied Share Price$84.83 (80.2% Discount)

STUBStubHub Holdings, Inc.·Rule of 40: 179.9%·Actual EV/Rev: 3.2×·Regression Fair Multiple: 16.1×

80.2% Below Trendline (Attractive)Open STUB Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
StubHub Holdings, Inc.	STUB	$4.31B	$1.77B	81.1%	14.4%	179.9%	0.4%	3.2×
ServiceNow	NOW	$152.61B	$10.98B	79.2%	31.1%	54.2%	15.9%	13.9×
Workday, Inc.	WDAY	$50.35B	$8.00B	75.0%	27.4%	43.9%	19.0%	6.4×
Salesforce	CRM	$217.10B	$37.90B	77.2%	32.8%	42.8%	8.4%	5.8×
Datadog	DDOG	$46.05B	$2.68B	80.8%	31.1%	57.7%	21.3%	17.4×
Snowflake Inc.	SNOW	$71.79B	$3.63B	66.5%	25.2%	57.7%	40.8%	20.0×
Hubspot	HUBS	$19.89B	$2.63B	85.0%	21.3%	52.7%	19.2%	7.7×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				78.2%	29.2%	53.5%	19.1%	10.8×

Section 6 · Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Implied Share Price	Delta vs Current
Current Multiple	3.2×	$5.65B	$4.31B	$13.45	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	2.6×	$4.52B	$3.19B	$9.93	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	2.1×	$3.67B	$2.34B	$7.29	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$8.85B	$7.52B	$23.45	+56.8%

Section 7 · Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) Valuation

What is StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) has a Base Case implied value of $145.34 per share (with a Bear Case of $23.84 and a Bull Case of $420.55), compared to its current price of $13.45. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

StubHub Holdings, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 179.9%, combining a 165.5% revenue growth run-rate with a 14.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $1.77B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.

What revenue growth rate is priced into STUB stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

At $13.45 per share (Enterprise Value of $5.65B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 14.2%, compared to StubHub Holdings, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 165.5%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".

How does StubHub Holdings, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 87/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)'s valuation?

StubHub Holdings, Inc. recorded $7.7M in TTM stock-based compensation (0.4% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, StubHub Holdings, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 5.7%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

WACC \ Terminal

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

8.5%

$1,123.58

+8254%

$1,206.73

+8872%

$1,303.73

+9593%

$1,418.37

+10446%

$1,555.94

+11468%

9.3%

$991.36

+7271%

$1,056.86

+7758%

$1,132.06

+8317%

$1,219.30

+8965%

$1,321.70

+9727%

10.0%

$883.12

+6466%

$935.78

+6857%

$995.47

+7301%

$1,063.67

+7808%

$1,142.37

+8393%

10.8%

$793.02

+5796%

$836.08

+6116%

$884.35

+6475%

$938.86

+6880%

$1,000.88

+7341%

11.5%

$716.95

+5230%

$752.66

+5496%

$792.33

+5791%

$836.67

+6121%

$886.56

+6491%

Statement Line Item

TTM Audited Base

TTM

Revenue

$1.77B

$3.19B

$5.74B

$10.33B

$18.59B

$33.46B

Gross Profit

$1.44B

$2.59B

$4.65B

$8.38B

$15.08B

$27.14B

Operating Income (EBIT)

$138.1M

$248.6M

$447.5M

$805.5M

$1.45B

$2.61B

Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)

$7.7M

$7.8M

$14.0M

$25.2M

$45.4M

$81.8M

$147.2M

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)

$255.1M

$459.3M

$826.7M

$1.49B

$2.68B

$4.82B

SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow

$247.4M

$445.2M

$801.4M

$1.44B

$2.60B

$4.67B

Company

Ticker

Market Cap

TTM Revenue

Gross Margin

FCF Margin

Rule of 40

SBC % Rev

EV / Rev

StubHub Holdings, Inc.

STUB

$4.31B

$1.77B

81.1%

14.4%

179.9%

0.4%

3.2×

ServiceNow

NOW

$152.61B

$10.98B

79.2%

31.1%

54.2%

15.9%

13.9×

Workday, Inc.

WDAY

$50.35B

$8.00B

75.0%

27.4%

43.9%

19.0%

6.4×

Salesforce

CRM

$217.10B

$37.90B

77.2%

32.8%

42.8%

8.4%

5.8×

Datadog

DDOG

$46.05B

$2.68B

80.8%

31.1%

57.7%

21.3%

17.4×

Snowflake Inc.

SNOW

$71.79B

$3.63B

66.5%

25.2%

57.7%

40.8%

20.0×

Hubspot

HUBS

$19.89B

$2.63B

85.0%

21.3%

52.7%

19.2%

7.7×

Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)

78.2%

29.2%

53.5%

19.1%

10.8×

Multiple Scenario

EV / Revenue

Implied Enterprise Value

Implied Equity Value

Implied Share Price

Delta vs Current

Current Multiple

3.2×

$5.65B

$4.31B

$13.45

0.0%

-20% Multiple Compression

2.6×

$4.52B

$3.19B

$9.93

-20.0%

-35% Multiple Compression

2.1×

$3.67B

$2.34B

$7.29

-35.0%

Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)

5.0×

$8.85B

$7.52B

$23.45

+56.8%

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (87/100 · Grade A)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into STUB?

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) Valuation

What is StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into STUB stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does StubHub Holdings, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (87/100 · Grade A)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into STUB?

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) Valuation

What is StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into STUB stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does StubHub Holdings, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports