Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA) currently trades at $79.16 with an enterprise value of $1.03B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Synaptics Incorporated at 49/100 (Grade: C · Capital Intensive / Low Margin). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 25.3% vs. historical growth of -5.4% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test SYNA's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $79.16).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $16.90 -79% | $18.56 -77% | $20.49 -74% | $22.77 -71% | $25.51 -68% |
| 9.3% | $14.16 -82% | $15.47 -80% | $16.96 -79% | $18.70 -76% | $20.74 -74% |
| 10.0% | $11.91 -85% | $12.96 -84% | $14.14 -82% | $15.50 -80% | $17.07 -78% |
| 10.8% | $10.01 -87% | $10.87 -86% | $11.83 -85% | $12.92 -84% | $14.15 -82% |
| 11.5% | $8.40 -89% | $9.11 -88% | $9.90 -87% | $10.79 -86% | $11.78 -85% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (49/100 · Grade C)
Weak cash conversion, substantial dilution drag, or constrained financial flexibility.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (44.7%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into SYNA?
The current share price demands 25.3% 5-year CAGR (41.0% net of SBC & dilution)—a +30.6% acceleration over historical run-rate (-5.4%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (10.5% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.3%/yr). Accounting for both requires 41.0% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $79.16/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.07B | $1.07B | $1.02B | $962.0M | $910.4M | $861.5M | $815.2M |
| Gross Profit | $480.4M | $480.4M | $454.6M | $430.2M | $407.1M | $385.3M | $364.6M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-94.1M | $-94.1M | $-89.1M | $-84.3M | $-79.7M | $-75.5M | $-71.4M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $112.8M | $112.8M | $106.7M | $101.0M | $95.6M | $90.5M | $85.6M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $106.2M | $106.2M | $100.5M | $95.1M | $90.0M | $85.2M | $80.6M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $-6.6M | $-6.6M | $-6.2M | $-5.9M | $-5.6M | $-5.3M | $-5.0M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -0.4 + 0.25 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 52%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Synaptics Incorporated | SYNA | $3.09B | $1.07B | 44.7% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 10.5% | 3.3× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.3× | $3.58B | $3.09B | $79.16 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 2.7× | $2.86B | $2.37B | $60.82 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.2× | $2.32B | $1.84B | $47.07 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $5.37B | $4.88B | $125.23 | +50.2% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA) Valuation
What is Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA) has a Base Case implied value of $13.89 per share (with a Bear Case of $6.93 and a Bull Case of $19.90), compared to its current price of $79.16. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Synaptics Incorporated achieves a Rule of 40 score of 4.5%, combining a -5.4% revenue growth run-rate with a 9.9% TTM free cash flow margin on $1.07B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into SYNA stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $79.16 per share (Enterprise Value of $3.58B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 25.3%, compared to Synaptics Incorporated's historical CAGR of -5.4%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does Synaptics Incorporated compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 49/100 (Grade C — Capital Intensive / Low Margin). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Synaptics Incorporated (SYNA)'s valuation?
Synaptics Incorporated recorded $112.8M in TTM stock-based compensation (10.5% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Synaptics Incorporated's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -0.2%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.