TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) currently trades at $69.00 with an enterprise value of $737.0M. Our proprietary institutional model rates TTM Technologies, Inc. at 58/100 (Grade: B · Mixed Fundamental Profile). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 12.8% vs. historical growth of 3.8% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test TTMI's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $69.00).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $32.67 -53% | $34.93 -49% | $37.56 -46% | $40.68 -41% | $44.41 -36% |
| 9.3% | $28.97 -58% | $30.74 -55% | $32.79 -52% | $35.16 -49% | $37.94 -45% |
| 10.0% | $25.92 -62% | $27.35 -60% | $28.97 -58% | $30.82 -55% | $32.96 -52% |
| 10.8% | $23.36 -66% | $24.53 -64% | $25.84 -63% | $27.32 -60% | $29.01 -58% |
| 11.5% | $21.19 -69% | $22.16 -68% | $23.24 -66% | $24.44 -65% | $25.80 -63% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (58/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 1.2% of revenue
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (19.5%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into TTMI?
The current share price demands 12.8% 5-year CAGR (14.0% net of SBC & dilution)—a +9.0% acceleration over historical run-rate (3.8%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (1.2% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.1%/yr). Accounting for both requires 14.0% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $69.00/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.44B | $2.44B | $2.54B | $2.63B | $2.73B | $2.83B | $2.94B |
| Gross Profit | $477.4M | $477.3M | $495.4M | $514.2M | $533.7M | $553.9M | $574.9M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $116.0M | $116.0M | $120.4M | $125.0M | $129.7M | $134.6M | $139.7M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $29.8M | $29.8M | $30.9M | $32.1M | $33.3M | $34.6M | $35.9M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $51.2M | $51.1M | $53.0M | $55.0M | $57.1M | $59.2M | $61.5M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $21.4M | $21.3M | $22.1M | $22.9M | $23.8M | $24.7M | $25.6M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -1.1 + 0.26 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 54%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTM Technologies, Inc. | TTMI | $7.13B | $2.44B | 19.5% | 2.1% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 3.1× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.1× | $7.66B | $7.13B | $69.00 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 2.5× | $6.13B | $5.60B | $54.17 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.0× | $4.98B | $4.45B | $43.04 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $12.21B | $11.68B | $113.03 | +59.4% |
Frequently Asked Questions: TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) Valuation
What is TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) has a Base Case implied value of $1.96 per share (with a Bear Case of -$0.90 and a Bull Case of $5.06), compared to its current price of $69.00. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
TTM Technologies, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 5.9%, combining a 3.8% revenue growth run-rate with a 2.1% TTM free cash flow margin on $2.44B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into TTMI stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $69.00 per share (Enterprise Value of $7.66B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 12.8%, compared to TTM Technologies, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 3.8%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does TTM Technologies, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 58/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI)'s valuation?
TTM Technologies, Inc. recorded $29.8M in TTM stock-based compensation (1.2% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, TTM Technologies, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.3%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.