Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA) currently trades at $29.01 with an enterprise value of $-3.63B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Via Transportation, Inc. at 46/100 (Grade: C · Capital Intensive / Low Margin). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 28.2% vs. historical growth of 35.7% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test VIA's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $29.01).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $28.28 -3% | $29.88 +3% | $31.74 +9% | $33.94 +17% | $36.59 +26% |
| 9.3% | $25.70 -11% | $26.96 -7% | $28.41 -2% | $30.08 +4% | $32.05 +10% |
| 10.0% | $23.59 -19% | $24.60 -15% | $25.75 -11% | $27.06 -7% | $28.57 -2% |
| 10.8% | $21.82 -25% | $22.65 -22% | $23.57 -19% | $24.62 -15% | $25.81 -11% |
| 11.5% | $20.32 -30% | $21.01 -28% | $21.77 -25% | $22.62 -22% | $23.58 -19% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (46/100 · Grade C)
Weak cash conversion, substantial dilution drag, or constrained financial flexibility.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Negative free cash flow burn of $-74.4M over trailing twelve months
- Lower software gross margins (38.8%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into VIA?
The current share price only requires 28.2% 5-year CAGR (36.2% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 35.7%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (6.3% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 36.2% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $29.01/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $337.6M | $337.6M | $458.1M | $621.5M | $843.1M | $1.14B | $1.55B |
| Gross Profit | $130.8M | $130.8M | $177.5M | $240.8M | $326.7M | $443.2M | $601.4M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-83.9M | $-83.9M | $-113.8M | $-154.4M | $-209.5M | $-284.3M | $-385.6M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $21.2M | $21.2M | $28.8M | $39.1M | $53.0M | $71.9M | $97.6M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $-74.4M | $-74.4M | $-101.0M | $-137.0M | $-185.8M | $-252.1M | $-342.0M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $-95.6M | $-95.7M | $-129.8M | $-176.1M | $-238.9M | $-324.1M | $-439.6M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -1.2 + 0.26 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 46%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Via Transportation, Inc. | VIA | $2.24B | $337.6M | 38.8% | -22.0% | 13.6% | 6.3% | 5.6× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 5.6× | $1.90B | $2.24B | $29.01 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 4.5× | $1.52B | $1.86B | $24.08 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.7× | $1.24B | $1.57B | $20.38 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.69B | $2.02B | $26.25 | -11.2% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA) Valuation
What is Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA) has a Base Case implied value of -$42.71 per share (with a Bear Case of -$11.20 and a Bull Case of -$94.72), compared to its current price of $29.01. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Via Transportation, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 13.6%, combining a 35.7% revenue growth run-rate with a -22.0% TTM free cash flow margin on $337.6M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into VIA stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $29.01 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.90B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 28.2%, compared to Via Transportation, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 35.7%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does Via Transportation, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 46/100 (Grade C — Capital Intensive / Low Margin). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Via Transportation, Inc. (VIA)'s valuation?
Via Transportation, Inc. recorded $21.2M in TTM stock-based compensation (6.3% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Via Transportation, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -4.3%, scoring 21/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.