NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX) currently trades at $10.20 with an enterprise value of $-1.90B. Our proprietary institutional model rates NCR Voyix Corporation at 44/100 (Grade: C · Capital Intensive / Low Margin). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of -16.5% vs. historical growth of -17.9% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test VYX's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $10.20).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $4.58 -55% | $5.18 -49% | $5.89 -42% | $6.72 -34% | $7.72 -24% |
| 9.3% | $3.57 -65% | $4.04 -60% | $4.59 -55% | $5.22 -49% | $5.96 -42% |
| 10.0% | $2.73 -73% | $3.11 -70% | $3.54 -65% | $4.04 -60% | $4.61 -55% |
| 10.8% | $2.02 -80% | $2.33 -77% | $2.68 -74% | $3.08 -70% | $3.53 -65% |
| 11.5% | $1.42 -86% | $1.68 -84% | $1.96 -81% | $2.29 -78% | $2.65 -74% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (44/100 · Grade C)
Weak cash conversion, substantial dilution drag, or constrained financial flexibility.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Leveraged balance sheet coupled with cash burn; heightened refinancing risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 1.7% of revenue
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Negative free cash flow burn of $-349.0M over trailing twelve months
- Lower software gross margins (20.5%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
- Balance sheet vulnerability: Net debt of $1.04B while operating with cash burn
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into VYX?
Market implies -16.5% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (-15.2% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (1.7% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.2%/yr). Accounting for both requires -15.2% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $10.20/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.83B | $2.83B | $2.32B | $1.91B | $1.57B | $1.29B | $1.06B |
| Gross Profit | $579.0M | $579.0M | $475.6M | $390.7M | $320.9M | $263.6M | $216.5M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-37.0M | $-37.0M | $-30.4M | $-25.0M | $-20.5M | $-16.9M | $-13.8M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $47.0M | $46.9M | $38.5M | $31.7M | $26.0M | $21.4M | $17.5M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $-349.0M | $-349.0M | $-286.7M | $-235.5M | $-193.4M | $-158.9M | $-130.5M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $-396.0M | $-395.9M | $-325.2M | $-267.1M | $-219.4M | $-180.2M | $-148.0M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 3.9 + 0.16 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 53%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCR Voyix Corporation | VYX | $1.41B | $2.83B | 20.5% | -12.3% | -30.2% | 1.7% | 0.9× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 0.9× | $2.46B | $1.41B | $10.20 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 0.7× | $1.96B | $921.5M | $6.65 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 0.6× | $1.60B | $553.2M | $3.99 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $14.13B | $13.09B | $94.49 | +475.4% |
Frequently Asked Questions: NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX) Valuation
What is NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX) has a Base Case implied value of -$21.23 per share (with a Bear Case of -$21.31 and a Bull Case of -$20.63), compared to its current price of $10.20. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
NCR Voyix Corporation achieves a Rule of 40 score of -30.2%, combining a -17.9% revenue growth run-rate with a -12.3% TTM free cash flow margin on $2.83B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into VYX stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $10.20 per share (Enterprise Value of $2.46B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of -16.5%, compared to NCR Voyix Corporation's historical CAGR of -17.9%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does NCR Voyix Corporation compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 44/100 (Grade C — Capital Intensive / Low Margin). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact NCR Voyix Corporation (VYX)'s valuation?
NCR Voyix Corporation recorded $47.0M in TTM stock-based compensation (1.7% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, NCR Voyix Corporation's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -28.0%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.