Docebo Inc. (DCBO) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Docebo Inc. (DCBO) trades at $22.65 with a market enterprise value of $606.1M and generated $190.8M in TTM revenue and $25.8M in free cash flow (filed 2025-05-09 (period ended 2024-03-31)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of $29.56 per diluted share ($815.6M DCF enterprise value, Grade: A+ · 92/100 · Elite SaaS Compounder).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of Docebo Inc. (DCBO): $190.8M TTM revenue (23.5% growth), 80.9% GAAP gross margin, 13.5% FCF margin, 3.5% SBC/revenue, and R&D Return Grade B (Burners, $0.44 new gross profit per $1 prior R&D).
Docebo Inc. (DCBO) earns a "Buy" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 92/100 (Grade A+). On $190.8M in baseline revenue (23.5% growth, 80.9% gross margin, 13.5% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $815.6M ($29.56/share vs. $22.65 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, DCBO ranks #93 of 174 (Burners · Grade B, 0.44× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Docebo Inc. operates at a 80.9% gross margin on $190.8M revenue (+8.2 pts above the Software - Application median of 72.7%).
R&D Productivity (Burners · Grade B): Investing 20.6% of revenue in R&D ($50.1M) generates $0.44 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #93 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 23.5% top-line growth with 13.5% FCF margin yields a 37.1% Rule of 40 score (vs. 47.2% cohort median) and $815.6M DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (80.9% Gross Margin · 23.5% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $190.8M | $235.7M | $291.1M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($36.4M) | ($43.7M) | ($52.6M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $154.4M (80.9%) | $191.9M (81.4%) | $238.5M (81.9%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $38.5M | $45.7M | $54.1M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $82.8M | $98.2M | $116.2M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $32.2M | $38.2M | $45.2M |
| Operating EBIT | $893K (0.5%) | $9.9M (4.2%) | $23.0M (7.9%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $5.7M (3.0%) | $15.8M (6.7%) | $30.3M (10.4%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 80.9% to 85.9%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $3.8M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $305.4M.
Docebo Inc. (DCBO) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test DCBO's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands DCBO's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $22.65).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $32.56 +44% | $34.50 +52% | $36.76 +62% | $39.42 +74% | $42.63 +88% |
| 9.3% | $29.43 +30% | $30.95 +37% | $32.70 +44% | $34.73 +53% | $37.11 +64% |
| 10.0% | $26.85 +19% | $28.07 +24% | $29.46 +30% | $31.05 +37% | $32.88 +45% |
| 10.8% | $24.69 +9% | $25.69 +13% | $26.82 +18% | $28.09 +24% | $29.53 +30% |
| 11.5% | $22.87 +1% | $23.70 +5% | $24.62 +9% | $25.65 +13% | $26.81 +18% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (92/100 · Grade A+)
Exceptional unit economics, disciplined equity dilution, and fortress balance sheet.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 2894% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 3.5% of revenue
- Healthy unit economics: 80.9% gross margin
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Audited R&D Intensity is 20.7% of revenue with a 0.44× incremental gross profit return per R&D dollar. Under your current Stage 1 (23.5% CAGR / 80.9% GM) assumptions, DCBO projects to 0.95× R&D Return (Grade AA · Compounders).
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into DCBO?
The current share price only requires 15.7% 5-year CAGR (19.3% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 23.5%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (3.5% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.0%/yr). Accounting for both requires 19.3% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $22.65/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Docebo Inc. (DCBO) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $190.8M | $190.8M | $235.7M | $291.1M | $359.5M | $444.1M | $548.6M |
| Gross Profit | $154.4M | $154.4M | $190.7M | $235.6M | $291.0M | $359.5M | $444.0M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $893.0K | $896.7K | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.7M | $2.1M | $2.6M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $6.7M | $6.7M | $8.3M | $10.2M | $12.7M | $15.6M | $19.3M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $25.8M | $25.8M | $31.9M | $39.4M | $48.7M | $60.1M | $74.3M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $19.1M | $19.1M | $23.6M | $29.2M | $36.0M | $44.5M | $55.0M |
Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 6.7 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Docebo Inc. | DCBO | $686.7M | $190.8M | 80.9% | 13.5% | 37.1% | 3.5% | 3.2× |
| Grab Holdings Limited | GRAB | $20.18B | $2.80B | 42.0% | 27.7% | 84.0% | 10.0% | 6.3× |
| Figma, Inc. | FIG | $18.07B | $749.0M | 88.3% | -9.2% | 39.1% | 126.5% | 23.5× |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | $71.73B | $11.24B | 86.6% | 25.8% | 70.2% | 4.4% | 5.9× |
| ServiceTitan, Inc. | TTAN | $9.97B | $771.9M | 64.9% | 2.0% | 30.5% | 21.2% | 12.5× |
| InterDigital, Inc. | IDCC | $8.65B | $868.5M | 80.5% | 30.6% | 55.3% | 5.3% | 9.9× |
| OPEN TEXT CORP | OTEX | $8.11B | $5.30B | 63.5% | 13.0% | 23.8% | 2.0% | 2.6× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.7% | 19.4% | 47.2% | 7.6% | 8.1× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.2× | $606.1M | $686.7M | $22.65 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 2.5× | $484.9M | $565.5M | $18.65 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.1× | $394.0M | $474.6M | $15.65 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $953.9M | $1.03B | $34.12 | +57.4% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Docebo Inc. (DCBO) Valuation
What is Docebo Inc. (DCBO)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Docebo Inc. (DCBO) has a Base Case implied value of $29.56 per share (with a Bear Case of $13.57 and a Bull Case of $52.73), compared to its current price of $22.65. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Docebo Inc. (DCBO)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Docebo Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 37.1%, combining a 23.5% revenue growth run-rate with a 13.5% TTM free cash flow margin on $190.8M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into DCBO stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $22.65 per share (Enterprise Value of $606.1M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 15.7%, compared to Docebo Inc.'s historical CAGR of 23.5%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
What is Docebo Inc. (DCBO)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
On the Golden Door Software R&D Return Benchmark, Docebo Inc. (DCBO) is ranked #93 out of 174 scored software peers, earning a Grade B in the "Burners" quadrant. Docebo Inc. invests 20.7% of FY revenue into R&D ($50.1M) and generated $0.44 of incremental gross profit per prior-year R&D dollar.
How does Docebo Inc. compare to Software - Application peers?
Docebo Inc. (DCBO) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 92/100 (Grade A+ — Elite SaaS Compounder). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Docebo Inc. (DCBO)'s valuation?
Docebo Inc. recorded $6.7M in TTM stock-based compensation (3.5% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Docebo Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 2.8%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.