Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO) trades at $4.04 with a market enterprise value of $338.8M and generated $154.3M in TTM revenue and -$66.3M in free cash flow (filed 2026-09-10 (period ended 2026-07-31)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of -$148.12 per diluted share (Grade: C · 45/100 · Capital Intensive / Low Margin).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO): $154.3M TTM revenue (110.9% growth), 70.0% GAAP gross margin, -43.0% FCF margin, 12.3% SBC/revenue, and R&D Return Grade AAA (Compounders, $1.45 new gross profit per $1 prior R&D).
Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO) earns a "Buy" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 58/100 (Grade B). On $154.3M in baseline revenue (110.9% growth, 76.0% gross margin, -43.0% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of -$12.46B (-$148.12/share vs. $4.04 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, GLOO ranks #14 of 174 (Compounders · Grade AAA, 1.45× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Gloo Holdings, Inc. operates at a 76.0% gross margin on $154.3M revenue (+3.3 pts above the Software - Application median of 72.7%).
R&D Productivity (Compounders · Grade AAA): Investing 25.1% of revenue in R&D ($23.7M) generates $1.45 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #14 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 110.9% top-line growth with -43.0% FCF margin yields a 67.9% Rule of 40 score (vs. 47.2% cohort median) and -$12.46B DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (76.0% Gross Margin · 110.9% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $154.3M | $325.3M | $686.0M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($37.0M) | ($76.5M) | ($157.8M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $117.3M (76.0%) | $248.9M (76.5%) | $528.2M (77.0%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $24.0M | $48.6M | $98.3M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $139.8M | $283.0M | $572.0M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $54.4M | $110.1M | $222.4M |
| Operating EBIT | -$101.0M (-65.4%) | -$192.9M (-59.3%) | -$364.4M (-53.1%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$87.9M (-57.0%) | -$165.3M (-50.8%) | -$306.4M (-44.7%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 76.0% to 81.0%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $14.7M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $705.7M.
Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test GLOO's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands GLOO's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $4.04).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $83.94 +1978% | $90.01 +2128% | $97.09 +2303% | $105.46 +2510% | $115.50 +2759% |
| 9.3% | $74.25 +1738% | $79.03 +1856% | $84.52 +1992% | $90.89 +2150% | $98.37 +2335% |
| 10.0% | $66.32 +1542% | $70.16 +1637% | $74.52 +1745% | $79.50 +1868% | $85.25 +2010% |
| 10.8% | $59.71 +1378% | $62.86 +1456% | $66.38 +1543% | $70.36 +1642% | $74.89 +1754% |
| 11.5% | $54.13 +1240% | $56.74 +1304% | $59.63 +1376% | $62.87 +1456% | $66.51 +1546% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (45/100 · Grade C)
Weak cash conversion, substantial dilution drag, or constrained financial flexibility.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Gross profit was not available in the filing snapshot, so unit-economics scoring stays neutral
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Negative free cash flow burn of -$66.3M over trailing twelve months
Audited R&D Intensity is 25.1% of revenue with a 1.45× incremental gross profit return per R&D dollar. Under your current Stage 1 (110.9% CAGR / 75.0% GM) assumptions, GLOO projects to 5.33× R&D Return (Grade AAA · Compounders).
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into GLOO?
The current share price only requires 4.1% 5-year CAGR (17.1% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 110.9%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (12.3% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.0%/yr). Accounting for both requires 17.1% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $4.04/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $154.3M | $154.3M | $277.7M | $499.9M | $899.8M | $1.62B | $2.92B |
| Gross Profit | — | $108.0M | $194.4M | $349.9M | $629.9M | $1.13B | $2.04B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | -$101.0M | -$101.0M | -$181.7M | -$327.1M | -$588.8M | -$1.06B | -$1.91B |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $18.9M | $18.9M | $34.1M | $61.4M | $110.5M | $198.9M | $358.0M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -$66.3M | -$66.3M | -$119.3M | -$214.8M | -$386.6M | -$695.8M | -$1.25B |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | -$85.2M | -$85.2M | -$153.4M | -$276.1M | -$497.1M | -$894.7M | -$1.61B |
Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 6.5 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloo Holdings, Inc. | GLOO | $339.7M | $154.3M | — | -43.0% | 37.0% | 12.3% | 2.2× |
| Grab Holdings Limited | GRAB | $20.18B | $2.80B | 42.0% | 27.7% | 84.0% | 10.0% | 6.3× |
| Figma, Inc. | FIG | $18.07B | $749.0M | 88.3% | -9.2% | 39.1% | 126.5% | 23.5× |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | $71.73B | $11.24B | 86.6% | 25.8% | 70.2% | 4.4% | 5.9× |
| ServiceTitan, Inc. | TTAN | $9.97B | $771.9M | 64.9% | 2.0% | 30.5% | 21.2% | 12.5× |
| InterDigital, Inc. | IDCC | $8.65B | $868.5M | 80.5% | 30.6% | 55.3% | 5.3% | 9.9× |
| OPEN TEXT CORP | OTEX | $8.11B | $5.30B | 63.5% | 13.0% | 23.8% | 2.0% | 2.6× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.7% | 19.4% | 47.2% | 7.6% | 8.1× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 2.2× | $338.8M | $339.7M | $4.04 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 1.8× | $271.0M | $272.0M | $3.23 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.4× | $220.2M | $221.2M | $2.63 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $771.4M | $772.4M | $9.19 | +127.7% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO) Valuation
What is Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO) has a Base Case implied value of -$148.12 per share (with a Bear Case of -$27.72 and a Bull Case of -$420.90), compared to its current price of $4.04. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Gloo Holdings, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 37.0%, combining a 110.9% revenue growth run-rate with a -43.0% TTM free cash flow margin on $154.3M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into GLOO stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $4.04 per share (Enterprise Value of $338.8M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 4.1%, compared to Gloo Holdings, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 110.9%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
What is Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
On the Golden Door Software R&D Return Benchmark, Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO) is ranked #14 out of 174 scored software peers, earning a Grade AAA in the "Compounders" quadrant. Gloo Holdings, Inc. invests 25.1% of FY revenue into R&D ($23.7M) and generated $1.45 of incremental gross profit per prior-year R&D dollar.
How does Gloo Holdings, Inc. compare to Software - Application peers?
Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 45/100 (Grade C — Capital Intensive / Low Margin). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Gloo Holdings, Inc. (GLOO)'s valuation?
Gloo Holdings, Inc. recorded $18.9M in TTM stock-based compensation (12.3% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Gloo Holdings, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -25.1%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.