Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG) trades at $113.88 with a market enterprise value of $1.18B and generated $374.8M in TTM revenue and $64.6M in free cash flow (filed 2026-03-27 (period ended 2025-12-31)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of $84.68 per diluted share ($835.5M DCF enterprise value, Grade: A · 87/100 · High-Quality Compounder).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG): $374.8M TTM revenue (1.2% growth), 67.2% GAAP gross margin, 17.2% FCF margin, 1.0% SBC/revenue, and Rule of 40 score of 18.4%.
Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG) earns a "Pass" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 87/100 (Grade A). On $374.8M in baseline revenue (1.2% growth, 67.2% gross margin, 17.2% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $835.5M ($84.68/share vs. $113.88 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, JG ranks #90 of 174 (Burners · Grade B, 0.45× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Aurora Mobile Ltd operates at a 67.2% gross margin on $374.8M revenue (5.5 pts below the Software - Application median of 72.7%).
R&D Productivity (Burners · Grade B): Investing 27.9% of revenue in R&D ($104.7M) generates $0.45 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #90 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 1.2% top-line growth with 17.2% FCF margin yields a 18.4% Rule of 40 score (vs. 47.2% cohort median) and $835.5M DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (67.2% Gross Margin · 1.2% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $374.8M | $379.4M | $383.9M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($122.9M) | ($122.5M) | ($122.1M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $251.9M (67.2%) | $256.8M (67.7%) | $261.9M (68.2%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $78.7M | $76.5M | $74.2M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $124.2M | $120.7M | $117.0M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $48.3M | $46.9M | $45.5M |
| Operating EBIT | $706K (0.2%) | $12.8M (3.4%) | $25.1M (6.5%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $10.1M (2.7%) | $22.3M (5.9%) | $34.7M (9.1%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 67.2% to 72.2%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $26.0M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $407.0M.
Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test JG's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands JG's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $113.88).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $92.05 -19% | $96.63 -15% | $101.97 -10% | $108.28 -5% | $115.86 +2% |
| 9.3% | $84.52 -26% | $88.13 -23% | $92.27 -19% | $97.08 -15% | $102.72 -10% |
| 10.0% | $78.32 -31% | $81.23 -29% | $84.51 -26% | $88.27 -22% | $92.60 -19% |
| 10.8% | $73.13 -36% | $75.50 -34% | $78.16 -31% | $81.16 -29% | $84.58 -26% |
| 11.5% | $68.72 -40% | $70.69 -38% | $72.87 -36% | $75.31 -34% | $78.06 -31% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (87/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 9155% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 1.0% of revenue
- Net cash positive: $168.0M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Audited R&D Intensity is 27.9% of revenue with a 0.45× incremental gross profit return per R&D dollar. Under your current Stage 1 (1.2% CAGR / 67.2% GM) assumptions, JG projects to 0.03× R&D Return (Grade C · Burners).
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into JG?
The current share price demands 9.5% 5-year CAGR (10.4% net of SBC & dilution)—a +8.3% acceleration over historical run-rate (1.2%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (1.0% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.1%/yr). Accounting for both requires 10.4% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $113.88/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $374.8M | $374.8M | $379.3M | $383.9M | $388.5M | $393.2M | $397.9M |
| Gross Profit | $251.9M | $251.9M | $254.9M | $258.0M | $261.1M | $264.2M | $267.4M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $706.0K | $712.2K | $720.8K | $729.4K | $738.2K | $747.0K | $756.0K |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $3.7M | $3.7M | $3.7M | $3.8M | $3.8M | $3.9M | $3.9M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $64.6M | $64.6M | $65.4M | $66.2M | $67.0M | $67.8M | $68.6M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $60.9M | $61.0M | $61.7M | $62.4M | $63.2M | $63.9M | $64.7M |
Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 6.8 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora Mobile Ltd | JG | $1.35B | $374.8M | 67.2% | 17.2% | 18.4% | 1.0% | 3.1× |
| Grab Holdings Limited | GRAB | $20.18B | $2.80B | 42.0% | 27.7% | 84.0% | 10.0% | 6.3× |
| Figma, Inc. | FIG | $18.07B | $749.0M | 88.3% | -9.2% | 39.1% | 126.5% | 23.5× |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | $71.73B | $11.24B | 86.6% | 25.8% | 70.2% | 4.4% | 5.9× |
| ServiceTitan, Inc. | TTAN | $9.97B | $771.9M | 64.9% | 2.0% | 30.5% | 21.2% | 12.5× |
| InterDigital, Inc. | IDCC | $8.65B | $868.5M | 80.5% | 30.6% | 55.3% | 5.3% | 9.9× |
| OPEN TEXT CORP | OTEX | $8.11B | $5.30B | 63.5% | 13.0% | 23.8% | 2.0% | 2.6× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.7% | 19.4% | 47.2% | 7.6% | 8.1× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.2× | $1.18B | $1.35B | $113.88 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 2.5× | $945.2M | $1.11B | $93.94 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.0× | $768.0M | $935.9M | $78.98 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.87B | $2.04B | $172.34 | +58.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG) Valuation
What is Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG) has a Base Case implied value of $84.68 per share (with a Bear Case of $58.79 and a Bull Case of $111.11), compared to its current price of $113.88. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Aurora Mobile Ltd achieves a Rule of 40 score of 18.4%, combining a 1.2% revenue growth run-rate with a 17.2% TTM free cash flow margin on $374.8M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into JG stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $113.88 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.18B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 9.5%, compared to Aurora Mobile Ltd's historical CAGR of 1.2%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
What is Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG) recorded $104.7M in FY R&D expense (27.9% of revenue) and $251.9M in FY gross profit. It is currently unranked on the letter-grade leaderboard (non-USD filer).
How does Aurora Mobile Ltd compare to Software - Application peers?
Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 87/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Aurora Mobile Ltd (JG)'s valuation?
Aurora Mobile Ltd recorded $3.7M in TTM stock-based compensation (1.0% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Aurora Mobile Ltd's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 4.5%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.