Roadzen Inc. (RDZN) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Roadzen Inc. (RDZN) trades at $1.61 with a market enterprise value of $140.9M and generated $60.4M in TTM revenue and -$21.3M in free cash flow (filed 2026-08-13 (period ended 2026-06-30)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of -$27.11 per diluted share (Grade: C · 48/100 · Capital Intensive / Low Margin).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of Roadzen Inc. (RDZN): $60.4M TTM revenue (59.5% growth), 70.0% GAAP gross margin, -35.3% FCF margin, 0.8% SBC/revenue, and Rule of 40 score of 24.2%.
Roadzen Inc. (RDZN) earns a "Watch" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 51/100 (Grade B). On $60.4M in baseline revenue (59.5% growth, 76.0% gross margin, -35.3% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of -$2.24B (-$27.11/share vs. $1.61 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, RDZN ranks #6 of 174 (Harvesters · Grade AAA, 2.19× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Roadzen Inc. operates at a 76.0% gross margin on $60.4M revenue (+3.3 pts above the Software - Application median of 72.7%).
R&D Productivity (Harvesters · Grade AAA): Investing 0.7% of revenue in R&D ($408K) generates $2.19 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #6 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 59.5% top-line growth with -35.3% FCF margin yields a 24.2% Rule of 40 score (vs. 47.2% cohort median) and -$2.24B DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (76.0% Gross Margin · 59.5% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $60.4M | $96.3M | $153.5M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($14.5M) | ($22.6M) | ($35.3M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $45.9M (76.0%) | $73.6M (76.5%) | $118.2M (77.0%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $746K | $4.6M | $7.1M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $41.9M | $64.1M | $98.0M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $16.3M | $24.9M | $38.1M |
| Operating EBIT | -$13.0M (-21.6%) | -$20.0M (-20.8%) | -$24.9M (-16.2%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$10.2M (-16.9%) | -$15.5M (-16.1%) | -$17.7M (-11.5%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 76.0% to 81.0%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $1.2M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $159.4M.
Roadzen Inc. (RDZN) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test RDZN's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands RDZN's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $1.61).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $8.51 +428% | $9.11 +466% | $9.80 +509% | $10.63 +560% | $11.61 +621% |
| 9.3% | $7.55 +369% | $8.02 +398% | $8.56 +432% | $9.19 +471% | $9.92 +516% |
| 10.0% | $6.76 +320% | $7.14 +344% | $7.57 +370% | $8.06 +401% | $8.63 +436% |
| 10.8% | $6.11 +279% | $6.42 +299% | $6.76 +320% | $7.15 +344% | $7.60 +372% |
| 11.5% | $5.55 +245% | $5.81 +261% | $6.09 +279% | $6.41 +298% | $6.77 +321% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (48/100 · Grade C)
Weak cash conversion, substantial dilution drag, or constrained financial flexibility.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Gross profit was not available in the filing snapshot, so unit-economics scoring stays neutral
Leveraged balance sheet coupled with cash burn; heightened refinancing risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 0.8% of revenue
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Negative free cash flow burn of -$21.3M over trailing twelve months
- Balance sheet vulnerability: Net debt of $7.7M while operating with cash burn
Audited R&D Intensity is 0.7% of revenue with a 2.19× incremental gross profit return per R&D dollar. Under your current Stage 1 (59.5% CAGR / 75.0% GM) assumptions, RDZN projects to 78.55× R&D Return (Grade AAA · Harvesters).
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into RDZN?
The current share price only requires 5.6% 5-year CAGR (6.3% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 59.5%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (0.8% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.0%/yr). Accounting for both requires 6.3% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $1.61/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Roadzen Inc. (RDZN) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $60.4M | $60.4M | $96.3M | $153.5M | $244.9M | $390.6M | $623.0M |
| Gross Profit | — | $42.2M | $67.4M | $107.5M | $171.4M | $273.4M | $436.1M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | -$13.0M | -$13.0M | -$20.8M | -$33.1M | -$52.8M | -$84.3M | -$134.4M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $501.8K | $500.9K | $799.0K | $1.3M | $2.0M | $3.2M | $5.2M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -$21.3M | -$21.3M | -$33.9M | -$54.1M | -$86.3M | -$137.7M | -$219.7M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | -$21.8M | -$21.8M | -$34.7M | -$55.4M | -$88.4M | -$141.0M | -$224.8M |
Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 6.7 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roadzen Inc. | RDZN | $133.2M | $60.4M | — | -35.3% | 24.2% | 0.8% | 2.3× |
| Grab Holdings Limited | GRAB | $20.18B | $2.80B | 42.0% | 27.7% | 84.0% | 10.0% | 6.3× |
| Figma, Inc. | FIG | $18.07B | $749.0M | 88.3% | -9.2% | 39.1% | 126.5% | 23.5× |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | $71.73B | $11.24B | 86.6% | 25.8% | 70.2% | 4.4% | 5.9× |
| ServiceTitan, Inc. | TTAN | $9.97B | $771.9M | 64.9% | 2.0% | 30.5% | 21.2% | 12.5× |
| InterDigital, Inc. | IDCC | $8.65B | $868.5M | 80.5% | 30.6% | 55.3% | 5.3% | 9.9× |
| OPEN TEXT CORP | OTEX | $8.11B | $5.30B | 63.5% | 13.0% | 23.8% | 2.0% | 2.6× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.7% | 19.4% | 47.2% | 7.6% | 8.1× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 2.3× | $140.9M | $133.2M | $1.61 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 1.9× | $112.7M | $105.0M | $1.27 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.5× | $91.6M | $83.9M | $1.01 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $301.8M | $294.1M | $3.55 | +114.2% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Roadzen Inc. (RDZN) Valuation
What is Roadzen Inc. (RDZN)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Roadzen Inc. (RDZN) has a Base Case implied value of -$27.11 per share (with a Bear Case of -$6.48 and a Bull Case of -$68.46), compared to its current price of $1.61. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Roadzen Inc. (RDZN)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Roadzen Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 24.2%, combining a 59.5% revenue growth run-rate with a -35.3% TTM free cash flow margin on $60.4M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into RDZN stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $1.61 per share (Enterprise Value of $140.9M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 5.6%, compared to Roadzen Inc.'s historical CAGR of 59.5%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
What is Roadzen Inc. (RDZN)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
Roadzen Inc. (RDZN) recorded $408355 in FY R&D expense (0.7% of revenue). Prior-year R&D is below the $10M ranking floor, so R&D Return is marked below R&D floor. The name still carries a fundamentals-only Buy/Watch/Pass grade.
How does Roadzen Inc. compare to Software - Application peers?
Roadzen Inc. (RDZN) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 48/100 (Grade C — Capital Intensive / Low Margin). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Roadzen Inc. (RDZN)'s valuation?
Roadzen Inc. recorded $501824 in TTM stock-based compensation (0.8% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Roadzen Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -16.4%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.