SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT) trades at $17.33 with a market enterprise value of $188.0M and generated $52.0M in TTM revenue and $870.0K in free cash flow (filed 2025-11-25 (period ended 2025-09-30)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of $15.03 per diluted share ($163.2M DCF enterprise value, Grade: B · 63/100 · Mixed Fundamental Profile).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT): $52.0M TTM revenue (100.0% growth), 23.4% GAAP gross margin, 1.7% FCF margin, 0.0% SBC/revenue, and Rule of 40 score of 81.7%.
SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT) earns a "Watch" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 63/100 (Grade B). On $52.0M in baseline revenue (100.0% growth, 23.4% gross margin, 1.7% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $163.2M ($15.03/share vs. $17.33 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, SAGT ranks #21 of 174 (Compounders · Grade AA, 1.11× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd operates at a 23.4% gross margin on $52.0M revenue (49.3 pts below the Software - Application median of 72.7%).
R&D Productivity (Compounders · Grade AA): Investing 21.0% of revenue in R&D ($10.9M) generates $1.11 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #21 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 100.0% top-line growth with 1.7% FCF margin yields a 101.7% Rule of 40 score (vs. 47.2% cohort median) and $163.2M DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (23.4% Gross Margin · 100.0% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $52.0M | $104.0M | $208.0M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($39.8M) | ($79.2M) | ($157.3M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $12.2M (23.4%) | $24.8M (23.9%) | $50.7M (24.4%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $10.9M | $21.0M | $40.2M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $0 | $5.0M | $9.6M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $0 | $3.0M | $5.7M |
| Operating EBIT | $5.2M (10.0%) | -$4.1M (-4.0%) | -$4.8M (-2.3%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $6.5M (12.5%) | -$1.5M (-1.5%) | $418K (0.2%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 23.4% to 28.4%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $1.0M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $214.3M.
SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test SAGT's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands SAGT's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $17.33).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $169.84 +880% | $182.05 +951% | $196.31 +1033% | $213.15 +1130% | $233.37 +1247% |
| 9.3% | $150.33 +767% | $159.95 +823% | $171.00 +887% | $183.82 +961% | $198.87 +1048% |
| 10.0% | $134.35 +675% | $142.08 +720% | $150.85 +770% | $160.88 +828% | $172.44 +895% |
| 10.8% | $121.03 +598% | $127.36 +635% | $134.45 +676% | $142.46 +722% | $151.57 +775% |
| 11.5% | $109.78 +533% | $115.02 +564% | $120.85 +597% | $127.37 +635% | $134.70 +677% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (63/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Manageable debt load covered by recurring positive free cash flow
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 0.0% of revenue
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (23.4%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Compare SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT) against the software universe on the 2x2 R&D Return vs. R&D Intensity matrix.
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into SAGT?
The current share price only requires 16.4% 5-year CAGR (26.4% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 100.0%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (0.0% of revenue) and annual share dilution (7.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 26.4% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $17.33/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $52.0M | $52.0M | $93.6M | $168.5M | $303.3M | $545.9M | $982.6M |
| Gross Profit | $12.2M | $12.2M | $21.9M | $39.4M | $70.9M | $127.6M | $229.7M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | — | $7.8M | $14.0M | $25.3M | $45.5M | $81.9M | $147.4M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $16.4K | $15.6K | $28.1K | $50.5K | $91.0K | $163.8K | $294.8K |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $870.0K | $868.4K | $1.6M | $2.8M | $5.1M | $9.1M | $16.4M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $853.6K | $852.8K | $1.5M | $2.8M | $5.0M | $9.0M | $16.1M |
Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 6.4 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 13%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd | SAGT | $187.2M | $52.0M | 23.4% | 1.7% | 81.7% | 0.0% | 3.6× |
| Grab Holdings Limited | GRAB | $20.18B | $2.80B | 42.0% | 27.7% | 84.0% | 10.0% | 6.3× |
| Figma, Inc. | FIG | $18.07B | $749.0M | 88.3% | -9.2% | 39.1% | 126.5% | 23.5× |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | $71.73B | $11.24B | 86.6% | 25.8% | 70.2% | 4.4% | 5.9× |
| ServiceTitan, Inc. | TTAN | $9.97B | $771.9M | 64.9% | 2.0% | 30.5% | 21.2% | 12.5× |
| InterDigital, Inc. | IDCC | $8.65B | $868.5M | 80.5% | 30.6% | 55.3% | 5.3% | 9.9× |
| OPEN TEXT CORP | OTEX | $8.11B | $5.30B | 63.5% | 13.0% | 23.8% | 2.0% | 2.6× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.7% | 19.4% | 47.2% | 7.6% | 8.1× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.6× | $188.0M | $187.2M | $17.33 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 2.9× | $150.4M | $149.6M | $13.85 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.4× | $122.2M | $121.4M | $11.24 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $260.0M | $259.1M | $23.99 | +38.3% |
Frequently Asked Questions: SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT) Valuation
What is SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT) has a Base Case implied value of $15.03 per share (with a Bear Case of $2.75 and a Bull Case of $42.93), compared to its current price of $17.33. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd achieves a Rule of 40 score of 81.7%, combining a 100.0% revenue growth run-rate with a 1.7% TTM free cash flow margin on $52.0M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into SAGT stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $17.33 per share (Enterprise Value of $188.0M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 16.4%, compared to SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd's historical CAGR of 100.0%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
What is SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT) recorded N/A in FY R&D expense (tracked from SEC filings) and $12.2M in FY gross profit. It is currently unranked on the letter-grade leaderboard (stale data).
How does SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd compare to Software - Application peers?
SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 63/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd (SAGT)'s valuation?
SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd recorded $16434 in TTM stock-based compensation (0.0% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, SAGTEC GLOBAL Ltd's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.5%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.