YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT) trades at $4.12 with a market enterprise value of $684.1M and generated $340.2M in TTM revenue and -$147.5M in free cash flow (filed 2026-04-29 (period ended 2025-12-31)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of -$6.77 per diluted share (Grade: B · 54/100 · Mixed Fundamental Profile).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT): $340.2M TTM revenue (-7.6% growth), 70.0% GAAP gross margin, -43.3% FCF margin, 3.6% SBC/revenue, and Rule of 40 score of -50.9%.
YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT) earns a "Pass" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 57/100 (Grade B). On $340.2M in baseline revenue (-7.6% growth, 76.0% gross margin, -43.3% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of -$1.30B (-$6.77/share vs. $4.12 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, YXT ranks #130 of 174 (Burners · Grade CC, 0.24× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd operates at a 76.0% gross margin on $340.2M revenue (+3.3 pts above the Software - Application median of 72.7%).
R&D Productivity (Burners · Grade CC): Investing 32.8% of revenue in R&D ($111.4M) generates $0.24 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #130 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining -7.6% top-line growth with -43.3% FCF margin yields a -50.9% Rule of 40 score (vs. 47.2% cohort median) and -$1.30B DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (76.0% Gross Margin · -7.5% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $340.2M | $314.5M | $290.8M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($81.7M) | ($73.9M) | ($66.9M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $258.6M (76.0%) | $240.6M (76.5%) | $223.9M (77.0%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $71.4M | $63.4M | $56.2M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $236.3M | $209.7M | $185.8M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $91.9M | $81.5M | $72.2M |
| Operating EBIT | -$141.0M (-41.5%) | -$114.0M (-36.3%) | -$90.3M (-31.1%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$132.5M (-39.0%) | -$106.2M (-33.8%) | -$83.0M (-28.6%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 76.0% to 81.0%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $40.0M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $310.0M.
YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test YXT's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands YXT's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $4.12).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $2.17 -47% | $2.27 -45% | $2.38 -42% | $2.52 -39% | $2.69 -35% |
| 9.3% | $2.00 -51% | $2.08 -50% | $2.17 -47% | $2.27 -45% | $2.40 -42% |
| 10.0% | $1.86 -55% | $1.93 -53% | $2.00 -51% | $2.08 -50% | $2.17 -47% |
| 10.8% | $1.75 -58% | $1.80 -56% | $1.86 -55% | $1.92 -53% | $2.00 -51% |
| 11.5% | $1.65 -60% | $1.69 -59% | $1.74 -58% | $1.80 -56% | $1.85 -55% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (54/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Gross profit was not available in the filing snapshot, so unit-economics scoring stays neutral
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 3.6% of revenue
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Negative free cash flow burn of -$147.5M over trailing twelve months
Audited R&D Intensity is 32.7% of revenue with a 0.24× incremental gross profit return per R&D dollar. Under your current Stage 1 (-7.6% CAGR / 75.0% GM) assumptions, YXT projects to 0.03× R&D Return (Grade C · Burners).
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into YXT?
The current share price demands 2.0% 5-year CAGR (5.1% net of SBC & dilution)—a +9.6% acceleration over historical run-rate (-7.6%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (3.6% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.0%/yr). Accounting for both requires 5.1% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $4.12/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $340.2M | $340.2M | $314.5M | $290.8M | $268.8M | $248.5M | $229.8M |
| Gross Profit | — | $238.2M | $220.2M | $203.6M | $188.2M | $174.0M | $160.8M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | -$141.0M | -$141.0M | -$130.4M | -$120.5M | -$111.4M | -$103.0M | -$95.2M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $12.3M | $12.3M | $11.4M | $10.5M | $9.7M | $9.0M | $8.3M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -$147.5M | -$147.5M | -$136.3M | -$126.0M | -$116.5M | -$107.7M | -$99.6M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | -$159.8M | -$159.8M | -$147.7M | -$136.6M | -$126.2M | -$116.7M | -$107.9M |
Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 7.1 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd | YXT | $749.1M | $340.2M | — | -43.3% | -50.9% | 3.6% | 2.0× |
| Grab Holdings Limited | GRAB | $20.18B | $2.80B | 42.0% | 27.7% | 84.0% | 10.0% | 6.3× |
| Figma, Inc. | FIG | $18.07B | $749.0M | 88.3% | -9.2% | 39.1% | 126.5% | 23.5× |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | $71.73B | $11.24B | 86.6% | 25.8% | 70.2% | 4.4% | 5.9× |
| ServiceTitan, Inc. | TTAN | $9.97B | $771.9M | 64.9% | 2.0% | 30.5% | 21.2% | 12.5× |
| InterDigital, Inc. | IDCC | $8.65B | $868.5M | 80.5% | 30.6% | 55.3% | 5.3% | 9.9× |
| OPEN TEXT CORP | OTEX | $8.11B | $5.30B | 63.5% | 13.0% | 23.8% | 2.0% | 2.6× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.7% | 19.4% | 47.2% | 7.6% | 8.1× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 2.0× | $684.1M | $749.1M | $4.12 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 1.6× | $547.3M | $612.3M | $3.37 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.3× | $444.7M | $509.7M | $2.80 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.70B | $1.77B | $9.71 | +148.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions: YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT) Valuation
What is YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT) has a Base Case implied value of -$6.77 per share (with a Bear Case of -$5.17 and a Bull Case of -$8.05), compared to its current price of $4.12. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd achieves a Rule of 40 score of -50.9%, combining a -7.6% revenue growth run-rate with a -43.3% TTM free cash flow margin on $340.2M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into YXT stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $4.12 per share (Enterprise Value of $684.1M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 2.0%, compared to YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd's historical CAGR of -7.6%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
What is YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT) recorded $111.4M in FY R&D expense (32.7% of revenue) and $232.5M in FY gross profit. It is currently unranked on the letter-grade leaderboard (non-USD filer).
How does YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd compare to Software - Application peers?
YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 54/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd (YXT)'s valuation?
YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd recorded $12.3M in TTM stock-based compensation (3.6% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, YXT.COM GROUP HOLDING Ltd's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -21.3%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.