Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) trades at $42.08 with a market enterprise value of $370.2M and generated $108.7M in TTM revenue and -$66.5M in free cash flow (filed 2026-08-11 (period ended 2026-06-30)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of -$508.04 per diluted share (Grade: C · 45/100 · Capital Intensive / Low Margin).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): $108.7M TTM revenue (47.1% growth), 70.0% GAAP gross margin, -61.1% FCF margin, 14.8% SBC/revenue, and Rule of 40 score of -14.1%.
Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) earns a "Pass" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 48/100 (Grade C). On $108.7M in baseline revenue (47.1% growth, 76.0% gross margin, -61.1% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of -$4.75B (-$508.04/share vs. $42.08 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, EXOD ranks #10 of 174 (Compounders · Grade AAA, 1.70× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Exodus Movement, Inc. operates at a 76.0% gross margin on $108.7M revenue (+3.6 pts above the Software - Infrastructure median of 72.4%).
R&D Productivity (Compounders · Grade AAA): Investing 21.0% of revenue in R&D ($22.8M) generates $1.70 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #10 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 47.1% top-line growth with -61.1% FCF margin yields a -14.1% Rule of 40 score (vs. 38.4% cohort median) and -$4.75B DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (76.0% Gross Margin · 47.1% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $108.7M | $159.9M | $235.2M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($26.1M) | ($37.6M) | ($54.1M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $82.6M (76.0%) | $122.3M (76.5%) | $181.1M (77.0%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $22.8M | $32.2M | $45.4M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $35.2M | $49.7M | $70.1M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $13.7M | $19.3M | $27.3M |
| Operating EBIT | $10.9M (10.0%) | $21.0M (13.1%) | $38.3M (16.3%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $14.8M (13.6%) | $26.8M (16.7%) | $46.7M (19.9%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 76.0% to 81.0%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $2.2M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $244.9M.
Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test EXOD's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands EXOD's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $42.08).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $95.85 +128% | $102.24 +143% | $109.68 +161% | $118.48 +182% | $129.05 +207% |
| 9.3% | $85.58 +103% | $90.61 +115% | $96.38 +129% | $103.08 +145% | $110.94 +164% |
| 10.0% | $77.15 +83% | $81.19 +93% | $85.77 +104% | $91.01 +116% | $97.05 +131% |
| 10.8% | $70.12 +67% | $73.42 +74% | $77.13 +83% | $81.31 +93% | $86.07 +105% |
| 11.5% | $64.16 +52% | $66.90 +59% | $69.95 +66% | $73.35 +74% | $77.18 +83% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (45/100 · Grade C)
Weak cash conversion, substantial dilution drag, or constrained financial flexibility.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Gross profit was not available in the filing snapshot, so unit-economics scoring stays neutral
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Negative free cash flow burn of -$66.5M over trailing twelve months
Compare Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) against the software universe on the 2x2 R&D Return vs. R&D Intensity matrix.
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into EXOD?
The current share price only requires 14.9% 5-year CAGR (36.0% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 47.1%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (14.8% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 36.0% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $42.08/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $108.7M | $108.7M | $159.9M | $235.2M | $345.9M | $508.8M | $748.4M |
| Gross Profit | — | $76.1M | $111.9M | $164.6M | $242.2M | $356.2M | $523.9M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | — | $16.3M | $24.0M | $35.3M | $51.9M | $76.3M | $112.3M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $16.1M | $16.1M | $23.7M | $34.9M | $51.3M | $75.5M | $111.1M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -$66.5M | -$66.5M | -$97.8M | -$143.8M | -$211.5M | -$311.1M | -$457.6M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | -$82.6M | -$82.6M | -$121.5M | -$178.7M | -$262.8M | -$386.6M | -$568.7M |
Software - Infrastructure Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 6.9 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exodus Movement, Inc. | EXOD | $391.4M | $108.7M | — | -61.1% | -14.1% | 14.8% | 3.4× |
| Block, Inc. | XYZ | $41.67B | $25.04B | 46.4% | 15.5% | 23.7% | 4.8% | 1.6× |
| CoreWeave, Inc. | CRWV | $35.80B | $1.92B | 74.2% | -80.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 23.5× |
| VeriSign, Inc. | VRSN | $22.52B | $1.56B | 87.7% | 56.1% | 61.5% | 3.9% | 15.5× |
| CORPAY, INC. | CPAY | $22.17B | $3.97B | 78.1% | 44.4% | 52.1% | 2.9% | 7.2× |
| NetApp, Inc. | NTAP | $21.02B | $7.39B | 70.6% | 22.3% | 24.6% | 5.4% | 3.0× |
| Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz | KSPI | $11,481.85B | $2,520.93B | 62.3% | 19.3% | 59.8% | — | 4.4× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.4% | 20.8% | 38.4% | 3.9% | 5.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.4× | $370.2M | $391.4M | $42.08 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 2.7× | $296.1M | $317.3M | $34.12 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.2× | $240.6M | $261.8M | $28.15 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $543.5M | $564.7M | $60.72 | +46.8% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) Valuation
What is Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) has a Base Case implied value of -$508.04 per share (with a Bear Case of -$140.09 and a Bull Case of -$1,180.25), compared to its current price of $42.08. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Exodus Movement, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of -14.1%, combining a 47.1% revenue growth run-rate with a -61.1% TTM free cash flow margin on $108.7M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Infrastructure peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 38.4%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into EXOD stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $42.08 per share (Enterprise Value of $370.2M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 14.9%, compared to Exodus Movement, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 47.1%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
What is Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) recorded N/A in FY R&D expense (tracked from SEC filings) and N/A in FY gross profit. It is currently unranked on the letter-grade leaderboard (pending full multi-year XBRL R&D history).
How does Exodus Movement, Inc. compare to Software - Infrastructure peers?
Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 45/100 (Grade C — Capital Intensive / Low Margin). Across its Software - Infrastructure peer group (XYZ, CRWV, VRSN, CPAY, NTAP), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 5.8× and a median gross margin of 72.4%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)'s valuation?
Exodus Movement, Inc. recorded $16.1M in TTM stock-based compensation (14.8% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Exodus Movement, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -21.1%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.