Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) trades at $6.42 with a market enterprise value of $148.1M and generated $71.2M in TTM revenue and -$1.4M in free cash flow (filed 2025-04-29 (period ended 2024-12-31)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of -$2.68 per diluted share (Grade: B · 57/100 · Mixed Fundamental Profile).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO): $71.2M TTM revenue (38.9% growth), 65.6% GAAP gross margin, -1.9% FCF margin, 2.7% SBC/revenue, and Rule of 40 score of 37.0%.
Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) earns a "Buy" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 57/100 (Grade B). On $71.2M in baseline revenue (38.9% growth, 65.6% gross margin, -1.9% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of -$73.8M (-$2.68/share vs. $6.42 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, ORIO ranks #18 of 174 (Compounders · Grade AAA, 1.22× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Orion Digital Corp. operates at a 65.6% gross margin on $71.2M revenue (6.9 pts below the Software - Infrastructure median of 72.4%).
R&D Productivity (Compounders · Grade AAA): Investing 21.0% of revenue in R&D ($15.0M) generates $1.22 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #18 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 38.9% top-line growth with -1.9% FCF margin yields a 37.0% Rule of 40 score (vs. 38.4% cohort median) and -$73.8M DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (65.6% Gross Margin · 38.9% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $71.2M | $98.9M | $137.4M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($24.5M) | ($33.6M) | ($46.0M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $46.7M (65.6%) | $65.3M (66.1%) | $91.5M (66.6%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $15.0M | $19.9M | $26.6M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $25.5M | $34.0M | $45.3M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $9.9M | $13.2M | $17.6M |
| Operating EBIT | -$3.7M (-5.2%) | -$1.9M (-1.9%) | $2.0M (1.4%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$1.9M (-2.7%) | $616K (0.6%) | $5.4M (4.0%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 65.6% to 70.6%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $1.4M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $143.4M.
Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test ORIO's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands ORIO's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $6.42).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $18.15 +183% | $19.35 +201% | $20.74 +223% | $22.39 +249% | $24.37 +280% |
| 9.3% | $16.22 +153% | $17.16 +167% | $18.25 +184% | $19.50 +204% | $20.97 +227% |
| 10.0% | $14.64 +128% | $15.39 +140% | $16.25 +153% | $17.23 +168% | $18.37 +186% |
| 10.8% | $13.31 +107% | $13.93 +117% | $14.63 +128% | $15.41 +140% | $16.31 +154% |
| 11.5% | $12.19 +90% | $12.71 +98% | $13.28 +107% | $13.92 +117% | $14.64 +128% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (57/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 2.7% of revenue
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Negative free cash flow burn of -$1.4M over trailing twelve months
Compare Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) against the software universe on the 2x2 R&D Return vs. R&D Intensity matrix.
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ORIO?
The current share price only requires 2.8% 5-year CAGR (5.1% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 38.9%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (2.7% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.0%/yr). Accounting for both requires 5.1% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $6.42/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $71.2M | $71.2M | $98.9M | $137.4M | $190.9M | $265.3M | $368.6M |
| Gross Profit | $46.7M | $46.7M | $64.9M | $90.1M | $125.2M | $173.9M | $241.6M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | -$3.7M | -$3.7M | -$5.2M | -$7.2M | -$9.9M | -$13.8M | -$19.2M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $1.9M | $1.9M | $2.7M | $3.7M | $5.2M | $7.2M | $10.0M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -$1.4M | -$1.4M | -$1.9M | -$2.6M | -$3.6M | -$5.0M | -$7.0M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | -$3.3M | -$3.3M | -$4.6M | -$6.3M | -$8.8M | -$12.3M | -$17.0M |
Software - Infrastructure Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 6.3 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Digital Corp. | ORIO | $156.6M | $71.2M | 65.6% | -1.9% | 37.0% | 2.7% | 2.1× |
| Block, Inc. | XYZ | $41.67B | $25.04B | 46.4% | 15.5% | 23.7% | 4.8% | 1.6× |
| CoreWeave, Inc. | CRWV | $35.80B | $1.92B | 74.2% | -80.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 23.5× |
| VeriSign, Inc. | VRSN | $22.52B | $1.56B | 87.7% | 56.1% | 61.5% | 3.9% | 15.5× |
| CORPAY, INC. | CPAY | $22.17B | $3.97B | 78.1% | 44.4% | 52.1% | 2.9% | 7.2× |
| NetApp, Inc. | NTAP | $21.02B | $7.39B | 70.6% | 22.3% | 24.6% | 5.4% | 3.0× |
| Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz | KSPI | $11,481.85B | $2,520.93B | 62.3% | 19.3% | 59.8% | — | 4.4× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.4% | 20.8% | 38.4% | 3.9% | 5.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 2.1× | $148.1M | $156.6M | $6.42 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 1.7× | $118.5M | $127.0M | $5.21 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.4× | $96.3M | $104.8M | $4.30 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $356.0M | $364.6M | $14.94 | +140.4% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) Valuation
What is Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) has a Base Case implied value of -$2.68 per share (with a Bear Case of -$0.60 and a Bull Case of -$6.21), compared to its current price of $6.42. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Orion Digital Corp. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 37.0%, combining a 38.9% revenue growth run-rate with a -1.9% TTM free cash flow margin on $71.2M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Infrastructure peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 38.4%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into ORIO stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $6.42 per share (Enterprise Value of $148.1M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 2.8%, compared to Orion Digital Corp.'s historical CAGR of 38.9%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
What is Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) recorded N/A in FY R&D expense (tracked from SEC filings) and $46.7M in FY gross profit. It is currently unranked on the letter-grade leaderboard (stale data).
How does Orion Digital Corp. compare to Software - Infrastructure peers?
Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 57/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Software - Infrastructure peer group (XYZ, CRWV, VRSN, CPAY, NTAP), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 5.8× and a median gross margin of 72.4%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO)'s valuation?
Orion Digital Corp. recorded $1.9M in TTM stock-based compensation (2.7% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Orion Digital Corp.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -2.1%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.