Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) trades at $1.50 with a market enterprise value of $125.15B and generated $337.8M in TTM revenue and $110.1M in free cash flow (filed 2026-08-10 (period ended 2026-06-30)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of $0.02 per diluted share ($1.97B DCF enterprise value, Grade: B+ · 66/100 · Quality Software Operator).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY): $337.8M TTM revenue (9.0% growth), 73.5% GAAP gross margin, 32.6% FCF margin, 5.8% SBC/revenue, and Rule of 40 score of 41.6%.
Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) earns a "Watch" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 66/100 (Grade B+). On $337.8M in baseline revenue (9.0% growth, 73.5% gross margin, 32.6% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $1.97B ($0.02/share vs. $1.50 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, RPAY ranks #1 of 174 (Harvesters · Grade AAA, 22289943.99× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Repay Holdings Corp operates at a 73.5% gross margin on $337.8M revenue (+1.0 pts above the Software - Infrastructure median of 72.4%).
R&D Productivity (Harvesters · Grade AAA): Investing 0.0% of revenue in R&D ($0) generates $22289943.99 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #1 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 9.0% top-line growth with 32.6% FCF margin yields a 41.6% Rule of 40 score (vs. 38.4% cohort median) and $1.97B DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (73.5% Gross Margin · 9.0% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $337.8M | $368.1M | $401.2M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($89.6M) | ($95.8M) | ($102.4M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $248.2M (73.5%) | $272.4M (74.0%) | $298.8M (74.5%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $0 | $17.7M | $18.5M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $286.4M | $299.6M | $312.9M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $111.4M | $116.5M | $121.7M |
| Operating EBIT | -$149.5M (-44.2%) | -$161.4M (-43.8%) | -$154.2M (-38.4%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$45.0M (-13.3%) | -$47.6M (-12.9%) | -$30.1M (-7.5%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 73.5% to 78.5%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $6.8M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $423.6M.
Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test RPAY's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands RPAY's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $1.50).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $0.02 -98% | $0.03 -98% | $0.03 -98% | $0.03 -98% | $0.03 -98% |
| 9.3% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -98% | $0.03 -98% | $0.03 -98% |
| 10.0% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -98% |
| 10.8% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% |
| 11.5% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% | $0.02 -99% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (66/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Healthy unit economics: 73.5% gross margin
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Compare Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) against the software universe on the 2x2 R&D Return vs. R&D Intensity matrix.
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into RPAY?
The current share price demands 160.1% 5-year CAGR (166.9% net of SBC & dilution)—a +151.1% acceleration over historical run-rate (9.0%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (5.8% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.7%/yr). Accounting for both requires 166.9% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $1.50/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $337.8M | $337.8M | $368.1M | $401.2M | $437.2M | $476.5M | $519.3M |
| Gross Profit | $248.2M | $248.3M | $270.5M | $294.8M | $321.3M | $350.2M | $381.6M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | -$149.5M | -$149.4M | -$162.9M | -$177.5M | -$193.4M | -$210.8M | -$229.7M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $19.7M | $19.7M | $21.5M | $23.4M | $25.5M | $27.8M | $30.3M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $110.1M | $110.1M | $120.0M | $130.8M | $142.5M | $155.3M | $169.2M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $90.4M | $90.4M | $98.5M | $107.4M | $117.0M | $127.5M | $139.0M |
Software - Infrastructure Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 47.4 + 0.36 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Repay Holdings Corp | RPAY | $124.93B | $337.8M | 73.5% | 32.6% | 41.6% | 5.8% | 370.5× |
| Block, Inc. | XYZ | $41.67B | $25.04B | 46.4% | 15.5% | 23.7% | 4.8% | 1.6× |
| CoreWeave, Inc. | CRWV | $35.80B | $1.92B | 74.2% | -80.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 23.5× |
| VeriSign, Inc. | VRSN | $22.52B | $1.56B | 87.7% | 56.1% | 61.5% | 3.9% | 15.5× |
| CORPAY, INC. | CPAY | $22.17B | $3.97B | 78.1% | 44.4% | 52.1% | 2.9% | 7.2× |
| NetApp, Inc. | NTAP | $21.02B | $7.39B | 70.6% | 22.3% | 24.6% | 5.4% | 3.0× |
| Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz | KSPI | $11,481.85B | $2,520.93B | 62.3% | 19.3% | 59.8% | — | 4.4× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.4% | 20.8% | 38.4% | 3.9% | 5.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 370.5× | $125.15B | $124.93B | $1.50 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 296.4× | $100.12B | $99.90B | $1.20 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 240.8× | $81.35B | $81.12B | $0.97 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.69B | $1.46B | $0.02 | -98.7% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) Valuation
What is Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) has a Base Case implied value of $0.02 per share (with a Bear Case of $0.01 and a Bull Case of $0.03), compared to its current price of $1.50. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Repay Holdings Corp achieves a Rule of 40 score of 41.6%, combining a 9.0% revenue growth run-rate with a 32.6% TTM free cash flow margin on $337.8M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Infrastructure peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 38.4%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into RPAY stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $1.50 per share (Enterprise Value of $125.15B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 160.1%, compared to Repay Holdings Corp's historical CAGR of 9.0%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
What is Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) recorded N/A in FY R&D expense (tracked from SEC filings) and $232.0M in FY gross profit. It is currently unranked on the letter-grade leaderboard (pending full multi-year XBRL R&D history).
How does Repay Holdings Corp compare to Software - Infrastructure peers?
Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 66/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software - Infrastructure peer group (XYZ, CRWV, VRSN, CPAY, NTAP), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 5.8× and a median gross margin of 72.4%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Repay Holdings Corp (RPAY)'s valuation?
Repay Holdings Corp recorded $19.7M in TTM stock-based compensation (5.8% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Repay Holdings Corp's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.1%, scoring 21/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.